After we get to watch 13 fights on Wednesday night in the TUF Nations Finale, the Octagon will be in Orlando, Florida for UFC on Fox 11, headlined by a heavyweight #1 contender’s match between Travis Browne and Fabricio Werdum. The other three fights on the Fox portion of the card are all very interesting in their own rights. Former women’s bantamweight title contenders Miesha Tate and Liz Carmouche look to get back on track in the co-main event. Donald Cerrone has really upped his striking game since coming to the UFC, and he’ll need it here against Edson Barboza who has made a habit of brutalizing his opponent’s legs. Kicking off the card is the always fun to watch Yoel Romero who will be fighting a man in Brad Tavares who will certainly be coming forward to engage. All of the main card bouts should be exciting as the big network always hopes when they put the UFC on the air. Before the fights hit big Fox however, there will be six fights on Fox Sports 1. The undercard is highlighted by a phenomenal bout between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Rafael dos Anjos, which, quite frankly, should be the co-main event on this card. The other very intriguing happening on the preliminary portion of the event is the return of former welterweight title challenger Thiago Alves — who hasn’t competed since March 2012 — taking on Seth Baczynski. The welterweight landscape has changed greatly since Alves last appeared in the Octagon, and if he can regain his form, he could be a player in the division again. The odds for Browne and Werdum have been released for a couple weeks now, and other than tightening by ten cents on each side (it now sits with Browne a -200 favorite and Werdum a +170 underdog), there hasn’t been much movement on that bout. Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for all of the televised bouts on the UFC on Fox 11 card at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox, 8pm ET) Travis Browne -210 Fabricio Werdum +160 Miesha Tate -165 Liz Carmouche +125 Donald Cerrone -140 Edson Barboza +100 Yoel Romero -150 Brad Tavares +110 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 5pm ET) Khabib Nurmagomedov -185 Rafael dos Anjos +145 Thiago Alves -350 Seth Baczynski +250 Jorge Masvidal -190 Pat Healy +150 Estevan Payan -165 Alex White +125 Caio Magalhaes -280 Luke Zachrich +200 Jordan Mein -385 Hernani Perpetuo +265 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: This is one of the best cards from a matchmaking perspective that I’ve seen in a very, very long time. Those who like to parlay massive favorites together for an easy payday probably aren’t as fond of this card however, as even from these opening spots I don’t see too many sure picks. That doesn’t mean the value isn’t there however. There’s actually probably more opportunities to bet with such close lines. In terms of confident picks, Jordan Mein has to be near the top of that list. He’s facing a UFC newcomer in Hernani Perpetuo who, while skilled, is taking a massive leap in competition and has a style which should play well with Mein’s. Aside from that, there aren’t any picks you can really be sure about. Sure Thiago Alves should tear through Seth Baczynski, but how much trust do you want to place in a fighter who has been out more than two years? Caio Magalhaes is one of the few other fighters with substantial favorite odds, and I don’t think anyone has ever considered him a lock. A lot of the other fighters are misleading at first glance. Miesha Tate is the better technical fighter than Liz Carmouche, but I think Carmouche has the superior physical skills, and that has proven to be a huge factor in women’s MMA. Donald Cerrone is more well-rounded than Edson Barboza and could be able to exploit Barboza’s defensive striking deficiencies. However, he could also show up and put on a stinker of a performance in typical Cerrone fashion while getting his legs clobbered with kicks. Yoel Romero has shown flashes of incredible offense inside the cage, but between them are periods of prolonged inactivity. Brad Tavares doesn’t have the same sizzle to his game, but is incredibly consistent in his performances. If Romero doesn’t find the magic that resulted in third round stoppages of Ronny Markes and Derek Brunson, he could easily get outworked to a decision. I know the whole world thinks Khabib is going to run over Rafael dos Anjos, but I’m still not convinced. Dos Anjos has improved his game leaps and bounds over the past three years since moving to King’s MMA, and I think he holds technical striking and grappling edges over Nurmagomedov. Khabib is still the likely winner based on his wrestling game, but that’s another area of dos Anjos’ game that has improved immensely. If anything, I would play the Over 2.5 in this bout. Estevan Payan looked good in his last performance… until his chin gave out again. He should be alright against Alex White — another fighter making his UFC debut — who hasn’t really shown great punching power, but chins very rarely get better as fighters age. Based on these openers, I can’t say there’s much that jumps out to me on this card. The good thing is that the public still has until Saturday afternoon to move these lines, and I’m certain there will be some spots that open up by then.
