The opening main card bout at Bellator 115 is a 195lb catchweight bout between Mikkel Parlo and Johnny “Tattooed Terror” Cisneros. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Parlo as a -600 favorite (bet $600 to win $100) while Cisneros is a +450 underdog (bet $100 to win $450). MMA oddsmaker originally opened up Parlo at -530 and Cisneros at +350, and all the action has so far come in on the favorite Parlo. I agree with the action coming in on Parlo as I’m also picking him to win the fight. Here’s why. Parlo (11-2) is so far 3-2 in Bellator and was on his way to claiming a middleweight title shot before his plans were derailed courtesy of some nasty Brennan Ward body shots in his last fight. The 23-year-old has put the loss behind him, and now he returns to Bellator to take on Cisneros in a 195lb catchweight bout that could, with a win, secure him a spot in the next middleweight tournament. Parlo is a solid striker who is pretty exciting to watch, so he’s exactly the kind of fighter Bellator looks to put in their tournament. But considering how inconsistent he’s been in Bellator, I can’t blame them for making him fight Cisneros to earn his way back into the tourneys. Armed with great takedown defence and standup, Parlo is a smaller middleweight but what he lacks in size he makes up for in punching power as he has secured seven of 11 career victories via knockout. And with another one this weekend against Cisneros, he’ll likely get back in Bellator’s good books and get the opportunity to earn a title shot once again. Cisneros (8-2) is a King of the Cage and Gladiator Challenge vet who makes his Bellator debut this weekend against Parlo. For the most part he’s unknown, but from his record we can discern he’s got some knockout power and should be able to put on some fun fights for the Bellator fans. But it seems pretty clear to me that Bellator has brought in Cisneros to lose to Parlo here, and that’s why Cisneros opened as such a big dog and continues to the dog as the fight gets closer to reality. It’s possible that Cisneros could surprise here, but it’s far more likely he’s outclassed by a superior striker in his Bellator debut and that the loss only makes him stronger and a better fighter going forward. I believe Parlo is a much more dangerous striker than Cisneros is, and I think he should be able to get the better of Cisneros on the feet as he secures either a clear decision victory on points or outright knocks Cisneros out. The line on Parlo at -600 is high so I would recommend passing on him altogether, even though I don’t give Cisneros much of a shot here. I’m just a bit worried about Parlo because he’s blown fights he should have won in Bellator in the past, so at the high price of -600 I don’t really see any value and can’t say there’s a play to be made here.
