Here are my prop plays for UFC Fight Night 38… Dan “Hendo” Henderson (+210) vs Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (-230) Rua -5.5 (-140) 1.4u to win 1u Rua by T/KO (+175) 1u to win 1.75u Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (-150) 1.5u to win 1u The first time these two squared off inside the Octagon, Henderson took home a split decision victory. This time around, I don’t see that happening. I think the only way he gets his hand raised in this rematch is if he does what he does best: lands that famous H-Bomb. I have no doubt he will be looking to land that big right hand throughout the match-up. I don’t think he will find success in landing it, though, especially considering the fact that he has begun to slow down drastically within the past couple of years. His movement and timing are not what they used to be; his skills have declined in those aspects of the game since the last time these two met. “Shogun” looked better than he has in a long time at the weigh-ins, which made me more confident in feeling that he will beat Henderson. I think it will either be a T/KO, or a clear unanimous decision, and my gut is telling me that it will be a stoppage that will please the Brazilian crowd. Leonardo Santos (+215) vs “Stormin” Norman Parke (-235) Parke -3.5 (+200) 1u to win 2u Parke by Decision (-120) 1.2u to win 1u I think Parke is going to keep this fight on the feet and batter the Brazilian. He can hang with the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black-belt on the mat, but I think he will keep it on the feet, where he figures to have a great advantage. I won’t be surprised to see Parke score his first Octagon finish over Santos, but I am execting to take home a unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. Rony Jason (-165) vs “Super” Steven Siler (+155) Siler +3.5 (-180) 1.8u to win 1u Siler by Decision (+358) 1u to win 3.58u Fight Goes to Decision (-150) 1.5u to win 1u If Rony Jason plays it smart, he will look to take Siler down and use his offensive grappling to win a decision on the judges’ scorecards. That said, Jason has never been one to employ and follow smart game plans. So, I expect the majority of this fight to play out on the feet, where both featherweights will have their moments. I think exchanges on the mat will likely be as exciting as the exchanges on the feet, considering both fighters are very talented in the submission game. They have both been finished in their careers, but I expect this bout to go the distance. Siler has the superior cardio, and I think that will benefit him, because Jason tends to fade as the fight progresses.
