UFC Fight Night 38 Date: March 23, 2014 Arena: Ginasio Nelio Dias City: Natal, Brazil Flyweight bout: Jussier Formiga (+175) vs Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen (-210) Fight Breakdown: The UFC Fight Night 38 preliminary card on FOX Sports 1 will feature a flyweight match-up between former #2 flyweight on the planet Jussier Formiga and former UFC/WEC bantamweight Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen. Formiga is the underdog in this scrap at +175 ($100 to win $175) and Jorgensen is the favorite to win at -210 ($210 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. Jussier Formiga (15-3 MMA, 1-2 UFC) will be making his return to the Octagon, following a first round TKO defeat at the hands of recent title challenger Joseph Benavidez. The Brazilian was ranked as the #2 flyweight in the world at the time the UFC announced their flyweight division, with his only loss coming to Ian McCall, who was ranked #1 at the time. Formiga is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace; he is always a threat from both top and bottom positions. The 28-year old is good at latching on to an opponent’s back and scrambling his way into a submission. Training out of Nova Uniao in Brazil, Formiga has put time in with champion training partners Jose Aldo, Eduarto Dantas, and Renan Barao. His all-around skill-set improves from fight to fight, though his striking does leave something to be desired. I expect the former Tachi Palace flyweight champion to have his conditioning in check for a 15 minute fight, as he makes an attempt to secure a W and make a run in the UFC’s 125 pound division. Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen (14-7 MMA, 3-3 UFC) was unsuccessful in his flyweight debut three months ago, dropping a unanimous decision to former Bellator bantamweight champion Zach “Fun Size” Makovsky. Now, with two losses in a row and four losses in his last five fights, Jorgensen certainly has his back against the wall heading into this match-up against a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace. While not a talented striker, I believe he will have the advantage in that department in this bout, not to mention an advantage in power. “Young Guns” is a talented wrestler who won three Pac-10 titles for Boise State University. He works decent takedowns and has a good ground and pound attack, as he likes to rain down heavy punches and elbows. When he’s not doing that, he is constantly peppering away with shots to the head and body. He’s wise to the fact that if he is unable to finish at the moment, it would be in his best interest to be scoring as many points as possible. Although he works a decent jab and leg kicks, his general striking game, while improving, is still elementary and needs a lot of work. Jorgensen has always had good conditioning, so I expect him to be ready for a three round fight against the Brazilian, should the fight go the distance. Fight Prediction: This will be a rare Jorgensen fight in which he has a striking advantage, so I think his game-plan will be to keep it on the feet and look to knock-out the Brazilian. Though he is a solid wrestler, I don’t think he is going to risk getting caught in a submission by the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist. To avoid being cut, it is likely that all he cares about is a win, regardless of how it comes, so I will not be surprised to see him play it very safe and just try to win on points. The main question that pops up for me in this match-up is whether or not Formiga will be able to take this fight to the mat, and right now, I’m not very confident, but I am thinking yes. This is a spot Jorgensen should be able to pick up a win, but I just think the Brazilian may be able to pull this one off. Also, I may end up regretting saying this later, but I think the value is with him. Gabe’s Pick: Jussier Formiga by Submission (rear naked choke, 2:13 round 3) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Jussier Formiga (+175) 1.6u to win 2.8u
