The co-main event of UFC Fight Night 38 is a middleweight bout between Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira and CB “The Doberman” Dollaway. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Ferreira as a -200 favorite (bet $200 to win $100) while Dollaway is a +185 underdog (bet $100 to win $185). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Ferreira at -180 and Dollaway at +140, meaning there has been some action on the favorite Ferreira. I agree with the action coming in on Ferreira as I am also picking him to win this fight. Here’s why. Ferreira (7-2) won TUF Brazil 1 and so far is 3-0 in the Octagon with wins over Sergio Moraes, Thiago Santos, and Daniel Sarafian. The 29-year-old is Vitor Belfort’s protege and like his master he has a tremendous physique as well as excellent skills both on the feet and on the ground. Although he lacks in fight experience, Ferreira trains at a great camp in the Blackzilians and has worked hard to improve his game and eliminate that the flaws that saw him lose early in his career to both Elvis Mutapcic and Antonio Braga Neto, and overall he’s looked very good in the UFC. The one problem he does seem to have is a mediocre chin, but with his extremely long reach (79″) he can keep his opponents from reaching it and so far in the UFC he’s done a decent job of that. Overall I feel like Ferreira may be a bit overrated by the Brazilian fans, but he’s a pretty solid fighter and should carve out a nice little career for himself in the Octagon, although I don’t see him ever sniffing the title unlike some others. Dollaway (13-5) made it to the finals of TUF season eight and although he lost via submission in the finale to Amir Sadollah, he’s still managed to carve out a very solid career for himself in the Octagon, going 7-5 overall while fighting in the UFC. The 30-year-old has excellent wrestling as well as an underrated submission game, and in recent bouts he’s shown off improved striking. The winner of two of his last three fights, technically Dollaway is coming off a loss to Tim Boetsch, but anyone who saw that fight knows that Dollaway got ripped off and the outcome of the fight doesn’t do justice as to how good Dollaway looked in that match, which is why he’s being underrated in this spot. Still, there’s a reason why the betting public isn’t that high on Dollaway, and that’s because he has shown a mediocre chin and mediocre submission defence in his career. He does have a better chance here against Ferreira that many believe, but fighting in Brazil he is definitely in store for an uphill battle. I believe these two fighters match up very well with one another and this should be a pretty good fight to watch as a fan. Although both men have flaws in their standup defence and I could see either guy getting finished, I’m leaning towards them neutralizing each other for the most part. I just think Ferreira is going to be a bit bigger and a bit fresher in this fight, and I think he’s going to do enough to edge out a decision in Brazil. Although I’m picking Ferreira here to get the win, I still think this is a dog or pass situation and I can’t recommend a bet on Ferreira here as I believe Dollaway is being somewhat undervalued. At the same time, though, I am uncomfortable recommending a dog bet on Dollaway even at a decent +185 mark, so in general I believe this fight is a pass. The total is set at 1.5 rounds and the OVER is only -180, so if there’s a bet to be made on this fight then I believe it’s that. But even the total is scary because of both fighters’ chins. So the best bet in this bout is to pass it and look for a better spot on the card.
