UFC Fight Night 38 Date: March 23, 2014 Arena: Ginasio Nelio Dias City: Natal, Brazil Middleweight bout: Thiago “Marreta” Santos (+435) vs Ronny Markes (-705) Fight Breakdown: The UFC Fight Night 38 preliminary card on FOX Sports 1 will feature a middleweight contest between a pair of Brazilians, when 10-fight veteran Thiago “Marreta” Santos takes on Nova Unaio’s Ronny Markes. Santos is a big underdog in this bout at +435 ($100 to win $435), while Markes is a very big favorite at -705 ($705 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. Thiago “Marreta” Santos (8-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC) stepped in on short notice to replace an injured Clint Hester in his Octagon debut over seven months ago, taking on a very game Cezar Ferreira. Santos was undersized and outclassed against Ferreira, and dismantled quickly in the first round of action, losing via guillotine choke. Octagon jitters may have played a factor in the defeat, but he was still a fish out of water against the much bigger, and more talented mixed martial artist in Ferreira. Naturally a welterweight, Santos now gets ready for his second middleweight appearance, as he takes on another Brazilian in Ronny Markes. Santos is skilled on the feet, both in his offensive striking, as well as defensive. His striking is fluid, in both southpaw and orthodox stances. Santos’ takedown defense isn’t bad, either, but he is under-sized and over-matched in this bout, so I don’t think he will find much success in stopping Markes’ takedown attempts. When taken down, he is generally tough to keep down, but again, I don’t think he will find success in stopping Markes’ takedowns, as Markes’ is the superior grappler, not to mention the fact that he will have the size advantage over Santos, as they head into this middleweight match-up. He may have the edge in cardio over Markes in this bout, but that remains a question mark at this point. Ronny Markes (14-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC) is set to make his fifth Octagon appearance, following a third round TKO loss at the hands of Yoel Romero. He was likely on his way towards winning a decision on the judges’ scorecards, but Romero hurt him in the third, and put him away. That said, fatigue did play a factor in it, and Markes has shown cardio issues during his tenure with the UFC, especially since dropping down from light heavyweight to the middleweight division. The Brazilian had a seven-fight winning streak snapped, and now looks towards putting together another one, starting with Santos on Sunday night. Markes is good at working opponents against the cage and tiring them out. His striking is not very good, but his wrestling is solid, as he works decent takedowns and doesn’t have much trouble controlling opponents on the mat. He will be entering this bout with a size advantage, considering he is a former light heavyweight and his opponent has previously competed at welterweight, so I expect him to use that to his advantage and outgrapple Santos, while looking for a stoppage, be it by way of T/KO or submission. Fight Prediction: Markes will the the bigger fighter and the superior wrestler, so I expect him to use his advantages to take this fight to the mat, where he will likely sink up a choke, earning his first Octagon finish. Gabe’s Pick: Ronny Markes by Submission (rear naked choke, 4:20 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ronny Markes (-705) parlayed with Barroso/Stringer Over 1.5 rounds (-230) for -157 4.7u to win 3u
