UFC Fight Night 37 Date: March 8, 2014 Arena: O2 Arena City: London, England UFC Fight Night 37 will be live on UFC Fight Pass, with the preliminary card kicking off at 12:30pm ET, and the main card getting going at 3:00pm ET. If interested in wagering on my recommended props, or any other plays on this card, these fight lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. These are my prop bets for this card: Light Heavyweight bout: Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson (-450) vs Jimi “Poster Boy” Manuwa (+400) Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision (+420) .5u to win 2.1u I think there is a decent chance Manuwa makes it all five rounds, even considering his cardio issues in the past. I am expecting for “Poster Boy” to be prepared for a hard, five round war against the recent title challenger. For a full write-up on this main event bout, I refer you to my fight article. Flyweight bout: Brad “One-Punch” Pickett (-710) vs Neil Seery (+575) Seery by Decision (+1390) .2u to win 2.78u Simply a value play. The Seery ITD prop is at +660 but the Decision prop is at +1390. I think it should be the other way around, so I have to take a stab. Light Heavyweight bout: Cyrille Diabate (+100) vs Ilir Latifi (-110) Latifi Inside the Distance (+220) 1.5u to win 3.3u Diabate has announced that he will be retiring following this bout, so he already has one foot out the door. That combined with the fact that Latifi is in dire need of a win make me like this play, especially because Latifi has solid wrestling and very heavy hands. His biggest asset in this fight will be his conditioning, since Diabate does not have good cardio. I think Latifi could possibly catch Diabate and put him away early, or pound him out when he gasses in rounds two or three. I am on Latifi for a straight play at -110, as well, but I like this play better, as I think it is the most likely outcome to this match-up. Middleweight bout: Luke Barnatt (-300) vs Mats Nilsson (+250) Barnatt Inside the Distance (+125) .2u to win .25u Barnatt certainly has a height, reach, and striking advantage over the promotional newcomer, and considering the constant improvement in his stand-up, I think there is a decent chance he scores a knockout in front of the English crowd. He is coming off a knockout win over the tough-to-finish Andrew Craig, so it would come as no shock if he paints a similar picture come Saturday. Middleweight bout: Brad Scott (-185) vs Claudio Henrique Da Silva (+160) Scott by Decision (+180) .5u to win .9u The Brit looks to make it two in a row inside the Octagon, as he gets set to take on the Brazilian newcomer. I think Scott holds the advantages in strength, striking, wrestling, and most importantly, cardio. He is well-conditioned, especially at 185 pounds, and I cannot say the same for his opponent. While Da Silva does not badly gas, he does tend to visibly fade as the fight progresses. I think his only route to victory in this bout is to catch Scott in a submission, and I don’t see that happening. I could, however, see the Brit submitting the Brazilian. I could also see him ending the fight via strikes, but more often than not, I think Scott batters Da Silva on the feet and against the cage, while mixing in takedowns and beating him up on the mat, en route to a unanimous decision victory. Flyweight bout: Louis “Goodnight” Gaudinot (-165) vs Phil Harris (+145) Gaudinot Inside the Distance (+220) .25u to win .55u I don’t think Harris has much left to offer, and am afraid he is on a decline and not UFC caliber at this point in his professional mixed martial arts career. Gaudinot is coming off a lengthy layoff, so as long as he does not suffer from ring rust, I expect him to be too fast and too tough for the Brit. I think Gaudinot will get the better of Harris everywhere, but I expect this fight to play out on the feet. I could see “Goodnight” living up to his nickname, be it via strikes or submission, but if he fails to score the finish, I think he will manage to do enough to get the upset in front of the London crowd in the opening bout of the fight card. That said, I think there is enough value on the ITD prop to warrant a play.
