One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 37 is a flyweight bout between Brad “One Punch” Pickett and Neil “2 Tap” Seery. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Pickett as a -650 favorite (bet $650 to win $100) while Seery is a +475 underdog (bet $100 to win $475). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Pickett at -505 and Seery at +335, meaning so far there has been significant action on the favorite Pickett. I agree with the money coming in on Pickett as I’m also picking him to win the fight. Here’s why. Pickett (23-8) is one of the most exciting pound-for-pound fighters in the sport, having earned a combined seven post-fight bonuses in 10 UFC/WEC bouts. The 35-year-old Brit is nicknamed “One Punch” for his solid boxing skills and knockout power, but he also possesses some of the best wrestling in the lighter-weight divisions and has an underrated ground game, too. In his MMA career, which has taken place mainly at bantamweight up until now, he holds notable victories over Demetrious Johnson, Mike Easton, Ivan Menjivar, Vaughan Lee, and Yves Jabouin. After losing to the cream of the crop in his bid to become the 135lb champ, Pickett decided to drop to 125lbs and he makes his flyweight debut this weekend against Seery. Originally set to face Ian McCall in what would have been a sure-fire No. 1 contender’s fight in the wide-open UFC flyweight division, Pickett now faces the replacement Seery in what is a must-win fight if he wants to show the UFC he’s ready for a title shot. Seery (13-9) is making his UFC debut on short notice, having taken the fight three weeks ago after McCall pulled out. The 34-year-0ld was the Cage Warriors champ but he gave up his belt there to sign with the UFC. Although his record isn’t great, Seery is a well-rounded fighter and seems to be improving both his striking and ground game. However, even with these improvements, this is still the same guy who lost to Phil Harris just a few years ago and now he’s fighting Pickett. If he has any advantage in this bout it’s that he has the experience fighting at 125 that Pickett lacks, and depending on how the weight cut goes for Pickett, Seery could have the cardio advantage in the later rounds. But he’ll have to get that far against a dangerous finisher in Pickett, and on three weeks’ notice it seems like Seery is in for a rough night. While Seery’s standup could pose problems for Pickett and his weak striking defence, I believe Pickett will fight smart and he will be able to land takedowns on Seery, get the fight to the mat, and either control Seery for 15 minutes or land a submission somewhere in the three rounds to pick up the victory in front of the London crowd. Although I am definitely picking him to win the fight, at -650 I don’t see value in Pickett and so I can’t necessarily recommend a bet on him as the value just isn’t there. However, if you do throw him in a parlay I don’t think you will be sweating it too much as it would be pretty surprising to me if Pickett lost. As for Seery, if he was taking this fight with a full camp in tow I’d say he’d have a chance to win, but not on three weeks’ notice.. As for props, I believe Pickett can win by either decision or submission so take a look at those when they come out, but I think the safest thing is to either put Pickett in a parlay if you absolutely want to have action on the bout, or just pass this fight completely as far as a bet goes and look for others on the card with more value.
