The main event of Bellator 110 is a light heavyweight semifinal fight between former UFC champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and former Bellator titleholder Christian “Tonton” M’Pumbu. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Jackson as a -450 favorite (bet $450 to win $100) while M’Pumbu is a +360 underdog (bet $100 to win $360). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Jackson at -565 and M’Pumbu at +375, meaning the early action has come in on the dog M’Pumbu. I disagree with the initial action on M’Pumbu as I see Jackson winning this fight in impressive fashion. Here’s why. Jackson (33-11) is the former UFC light heavyweight champion. The 35-year-old flamed out in the UFC with three consecutive losses to Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira and Ryan Bader, but he signed with Bellator last year and had an impressive debut with a knockout over Joey Beltran. In the Beltran fight, Jackson was pushed up against the fence and was likely on his way to losing the first round, but once free he showed his trademark aggressiveness and also proved he still has some knockouts left in his tank as he was able to KO the iron-chinned Beltran at the last second of the first round. Now, Jackson has been tabbed to fight M’Pumbu in a semifinal tournament fight. It’s a good matchup for Jackson because, unlike the former heavyweight Beltran, M’Pumbu is a guy who should be fighting at 185 and likely won’t be able to muscle Jackson against the cage. And on the feet, there’s no doubt Jackson is a more dangerous striker. This is a good fight for “Rampage” stylistically, and it’s going to take a lot for M’Pumbu to earn an upset. M’Pumbu (18-5-1) is the former Bellator light heavyweight champion, having won the season four 205 lb tourney to claim the inaugural title. However, the 36-year-old never defended the belt, first losing to Travis Wiuff in a non-title fight and then losing the belt to Attila Vegh last year in his first official title defence after more than a year out of the cage. Although he does have decent knockout power and is overall a pretty well-rounded fighter, M’Pumbu does’t excel at any one real area of the game and that’s cause for concern against a fighter like “Rampage” who has a clear gameplan. M’Pumbu is coming off a long layoff and unless Jackson has a let-down performance or if M’Pumbu comes up with some sort of gameplan to neutralize his opponent, it’s just very hard to see him win this fight. I see Jackson keeping this fight standing and outboxing M’Pumbu en route to either a unanimous decision victory or a TKO finish. M’Pumbu is a bit underrated but I just don’t see his path to victory in this fight and I can’t really understand why the early bettors of this bout are on the dog. At -450, I do think Jackson is parlay worthy as I had capped him at -700 for this fight. I do agree that Jackson is in a decline and that he’s bound to go back to his losing ways at some point, but I really don’t think this fight against M’Pumbu is the right spot to fade him. I feel like the early money coming in on M’Pumbu is dead money and a losing bet. There is also the UNDER 2.5 rounds at +150 that I’m leaning towards, as I believe Jackson could get the finish and I like the fact it’s a plus-money bet. For now, though, I will just parlay Jackson.
