One of the fights at Titan FC 27 that I’m most looking forward to is a featherweight bout between Kurt Holobaugh and Eric “The Machine” Marriott. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Holobaugh as a -400 betting favorite (bet $400 to win $100) while Marriott is a +310 underdog (bet $100 to win $310). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Holobaugh as a -425 favorite and Marriott as a +305 dog, meaning there hasn’t been much action on the fight so far as the line has tightened. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more action on Holobaugh early on as I am picking for him to win the fight. Here’s why. Holobaugh (9-2) is a fine featherweight prospect out of Louisiana. The 27-year-old last competed at UFC 159, losing a very close decision to Steven Siler in an excellent back-and-forth contest. Prior to that, Holobaugh stepped up a weight class on short notice and loss a decision to Pat Healy at the Strikeforce Finale. So when he was released by the UFC it came as a shock to many, including myself, as I believe Holobaugh has a lot of potential and at only 27 still has a lot of time to make big things happen in his career. A gifted submission fighter, Holobaugh is excellent on the ground and also improving with his striking. My concern with him in this fight is his long layoff, but as far as how he matches up stylistically against Marriott, this really is Holobaugh’s fight to lose. Marriott (22-7) is a Bellator veteran and has also competed many times in the midwest regional circuit. The 28-year-old is primarily a submission fighter and 10 of his 22 career victories have come via tapout. He is also known for his durability, having never been finished in his entire 29-fight MMA career. He has proven throughout his career that he can beat up the best guys on the regional circuit, but it’s clear that when he steps up in competition he falls just a bit short. Although I think he can hang with Holobaugh, this is a tough matchup for him as far as styles go as I see Holobaugh as a more dangerous submission fighter, and therefore I have a hard time seeing Marriott win unless Holobaugh’s submission defence just isn’t up to par for whatever reason this weekend. I see Holobaugh controlling the majority of his fight with his wrestling and submission game, and picking up either a decision win or possibly getting the tapout on Marriott. “The Machine” is a tough fighter so it wouldn’t surprise me if he can make it the full 15 minutes, but even if he does I don’t see him having much success against Holobaugh in any aspect of this fight and I really can’t envision his path to victory here, whereas with Holobaugh I think he has multiple ways to win. At -400, I like Holobaugh for a parlay. This is a fighter who truly should have never been cut from the UFC roster and I just can’t see how he loses to a journeyman fighter like Marriott so despite the -400 price tag I actually still see some value in Holobaugh here. There is a total of 2.5 rounds set for this fight, but since I think Holobaugh could win by either decision or submission I will be passing on that total as it’s too risky to bet, in my opinion.
