UFC 170 February 22, 2014 Welterweight Matchup: Mike Pyle vs TJ Waldburger By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics Big Picture: In the second fight of the main card, there are two more welterweights, each coming off first-round TKO losses, when Mike Pyle and Anthony “TJ” Waldburger face off. Both fighters are longtime veterans of the UFC, combining for 19 appearances, despite a large age discrepancy. Pyle is currently a clear -190 favorite over Waldburger at +165. This matchup may have some people shrugging, but let’s see if the numbers find any value in the lines. Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The Tale of Tape has a glaring differential in the age category, granting Waldburger a whopping 12.6-year Youth Advantage. But styles make fights, and I’m not ready to chalk up a win for the younger fighter in this case just yet. Striking Matchup: In terms of striking, the defensive stats are just as important as the offensive ones here. Both fighters have scored knockdowns, but both have also suffered them at an above average rate. In their combined seven UFC losses, five came by way of (T)KO. Though both fighters have above average accuracy, only Pyle is able to avoid power head strikes at a respectable rate while Waldburger’s head striking defense is the worst on the card. Waldburger doesn’t use much of a jab; he swings for the fences and in doing so he allows a lot of strikes to slip through. This is because he is historically pushing forward to land a takedown. That leaves him open to walking into something bad if he pursues Pyle, which according to their standup volume ratios, will likely be the case. If Pyle can retreat and counter strike the more aggressive Waldburger, Pyle has the accuracy and power to exploit Waldburger’s historically poor knockdown resiliency. Either man has the ability to score a KO here on the feet, but the numbers and styles lean towards Pyle despite the age differential. Grappling Matchup: When it comes to grappling, both fighters attempt frequent takedowns but with mixed success. Waldburger comes in with a high rate of attempts and an above average success rate, but has worse takedown defense. Pyle is less effective on offense but better at defending. Both fighters have been better than average in ground control, but Pyle was moreso. Waldburger is more likely to attempt a submission, but it’s interesting that the overall submission success rate in the competitive welterweight division is quite low. Waldburger has never been submitted, while Pyle has been tapped four times in his career, but just once in the UFC. Getting top control could help win rounds for either fighter, and predicting who will spend more time there is difficult, but I give the edge to Waldburger due to his more aggressive takedowns and submission game. Reed’s Pick: Pyle by TKO (click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: This a tough one to call, and definitely a lower confidence pick. If it stays standing Pyle has the skillset to exploit the openings that Waldburger provides. But Waldburger could try to turn this into a grinder on the mat, in which case the judges almost always favor the fighter in top control. Straight up, there may be more value on Waldburger. The over is currently -170 for 1.5 rounds, the under +140. Welterweights finish 49% of their fights inside three rounds, so agnostic lines for welterweights should be about even money. In this case, an early finish at plus money offers some value due to the tendency of both fighters to win and lose early by (T)KO. If you’re into live betting, the ability of Waldburger to get the fight to the mat in the first round could be indicative of how the rest of the fight goes, in which case a Waldburger by decision prop at +355 looks interesting. Again, that’s if he can get close without Pyle dropping him with a counter (Pyle inside the distance is +100).