Lyoto Machida vs Gegard Mousasi – UFC Fight Night 36 Statistical Analysis and Fight Pick

UFC Fight Night 36 February 15, 2014 Middleweight Matchup: Lyoto Machida vs Gegard Mousasi By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics   Big Picture:  In the main event at UFC Fight Night 36 from Jaraguá do Sul, Brazil we have two fighters who have recently dropped a weight class vying for title contention in their new division. UFC fans have seen very little of Gegard Mousasi, but at just 28 years old, he’ll be stepping into the cage for the 40th time in his career, which is far more than his opponent. Regardless of experience, current betting odds are giving more credit to the former UFC champion than the more experienced DREAM and Strikeforce champion. Lyoto Machida (#4 middleweight)  is currently a solid -235 favorite over #9 (LHW) ranked Gegard Mousasi at +195. Given the market uncertainly around Mousasi, it’s important to see what the numbers say about this matchup.   Summary Stats:

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  Tale of Tape Matchup: The Tale of Tape is important here for several reasons. Mousasi has significant Reach and Youth advantages, while Machida is a Southpaw. Machida’s notorious elusiveness and awkwardness is compounded by the unorthodox stance he uses. But the fact that Mousasi will have a range advantage and a younger brain is not to be overlooked. Since most of Machida’s fights stay standing, a reach differential is even more important. When Machida was matched up against older fighters recently he did very well, yet he won’t have that advantage here. Tale of the Tape leans towards Mousasi.   Striking Matchup: This should be the main battleground in this fight, as is usually the case for Machida, and the stats are close here. Machida is ranked fourth all-time for UFC knockdowns scored, with a knockdown rate that is into the double digits, more than twice the average for his weight classes (prior and current). When I ran the historicals on the UFC’s Most Dangerous Strikers, Machida was right there near the top of the list. He’s extremely accurate, very powerful, and his striking defense is so good that he’s never received more than three distance power head strikes in a single round of action. Mousasi, however, is no slouch either. Though he doesn’t have the same power stats from his Strikeforce and UFC fights, he definitely has a lot of striking finishes in his career. The stats that excel on Mousasi’s statline are his jab, pace, and defense. With the reach advantage boosting his range, Mousasi’s accurate jab could be the key move of the fight, just as his tendency to control the cage and outwork opponents should score well with judges. When it comes to striking pace while standing, Mousasi has a big edge over Machida by working at a much higher historical pace. All in all, there are advantages on either side of the matchup here, and also a lot of uncertainty. Machida had precision and power, but he could also get outworked, and his chin is not invincible at this age either. If Mousasi uses his range and own evasiveness, and ignores the boos of the crowd, he should steal some rounds and mount some threatening offense of his own.   Grappling Matchup: Neither fighter attempts many takedowns, and even more rare is either one shooting over the open mat. But both have legitimate grappling experience, and if they clinch, that’s where we could see one try to get top control. Both fighters are above average in their takedown offense, but Machida has the better takedown defense. Both fighters have also had trouble facing wrestlers, but if this goes to the mat we should see some scrambling. If Machida gets top control, he’s the one more likely to advance position and attempt submissions. But Mousasi is also well versed in the submission game, as well as in Judo to avoid getting put on his back from the clinch. Mousasi is also better at holding top control than Machida. Another toss-up here, and certainly not a one-sided matchup.   Reed’s Pick: Mousasi by Split Decision (click for latest MMA odds)   Reed’s Recommended Play:  Let me clarify. Because of Machida’s striking prowess, new lean and mean build, and even his admission that he can’t afford to sit back during fights anymore, he is still the stronger fighter on paper, and certainly has the better UFC pedigree. But the data also shows that this is much closer than most fans believe, and for that reason I feel there’s value in an upset play. Either man has the ability to knock out the other. And while Machida is extremely dangerous, he is also at greater risk having suffered more damage over the years and is now above the age risk threshold. Though confidence was high for Machida’s KO potential against Mark Munoz in his last fight, the same scenarios aren’t present in this matchup, so be more conservative with a play regardless of the angle you’re taking. The over is currently -170 for 3.5 rounds, the under +140. Middleweights finish 58% of their fights inside three rounds, so at a glance it looks like a bargain to take the under, especially given both fighters’ technical arsenals. But don’t forget how good each fighter is at avoiding damage, and that there will be a lot of feeling out during the beginning of the main event. Neither fighter will be overly aggressive knowing the risks that the other poses. It’s a close call, but I’m leaning towards taking the over.

Written by Reed Kuhn

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