Gennady-Golovkin_2604310bGennady Golovkin enters 2014 as one of the hottest names in boxing after a 2013 that saw him go 4-0 all the while defending his WBA and IBO World Middleweight titles.  GGG returns this weekend, on February 1st with a match in Monaco against Osumanu Adama in which the line sees Golovkin a massive (-7000) favorite, with the comeback on Adama at (+3000).
My tendency is to stay away from a line that massive, especially when you consider x-factors in Golovkin’s favor such as momentum and the international recognition that brings with it resources and backers.  It is unlikely that Team Golovkin would risk the gains of 2013 in the American market with a fight in Monaco unless they were quite sure Adama was the right opponent.  If Adama is able to prove GGG’s handlers incorrect and breaks through with a win, it was not because he wasn’t a hand-picked opponent.
But there is action at 5DIMES on this fight that might be bettable, and that is the over-under on rounds.  Golovkin has a well earned reputation as a stopper in fights, as he has ended every fight he has been in over the last five years before the scheduled time.  should the match go over eight and a half rounds the payback is (+180) and if it falls under that time frame the return is (-240).
Adama is a rugged fighter who has held Continental and Intercontinental titles in his career and has never been stopped in his three losses.  He has 16 KOs in his 22 wins, so he packs some starch in his punches.  It is safe to say he is out of his league in terms of overall talent and career trajectory, but that could open up a lot of possibilities.
Can he go the distance?  For a fighter at his level, that would be a huge accomplishment, as Golovkin’s name has started to appear among the very best in the world. With a good defensive gameplan, and frankly, a little running and avoidance could see Adama try to get through the 12 with Golovkin.
The lines are not absurd for the over – under, and it genuinely may make what is a squash match more interesting to watch.  Golovkin has fought in Monaco before, and let’s just say it can be a party town.  Could Golovkin, who is returning in triumph for a down match before returning to the states to continue his rise, take this match lightly?  Golovkin should win, but should he not look dominant and not close out his outmatched opponent, it could be because he took Adama lightly.


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