When the UFC ventures back down to Jaragua do Sul for the second time about two a half weeks from now, the Brazilian fans will be treated to one of the more intriguing ‘Fight Night’ series of cards that they’ve seen yet, at least at the top end of the event. While there is the usual contingent of Brazilian talent on the card (13 of them in 11 total fights), the top two bouts are what really steal the show. Four top middleweight contenders vie to become either the next challenger to the UFC middleweight belt, or at the very least a showdown with Luke Rockhold to determine the top contender after that. Certainly some high stakes at play. Below that the card is rather typical of these trips to Brazil, with some matches clearly favoring the local fighters, while other can be seen as a stiff test for competitors still trying to get their feet wet in the UFC. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas has been hard at work lately, as we’re not even through UFC 169 yet, and today he released the full odds for the Fight Night 36 card at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10:30pm ET) Lyoto Machida -265 Gegard Mousasi +185 Ronaldo Souza -420 Francis Carmont +300 Erick Silva -1200 Takenori Sato +600 Viscardi Andrade -185 Nicholas Musoke +145 Thiago Tavares -190 Zubair Tuhugov +150 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 7pm ET) Charles Oliveira -900 Andy Ogle +500 Joe Proctor -180 Cristiano Marcello +140 Ivan Jorge -135 Rodrigo Damm -105 Francisco Trinaldo -185 Jesse Ronson +145 Iuri Alcantara -215 Wilson Reis +165 Maximo Blanco -150 Felipe Arantes +110 Albert Tumenov -190 Ildemar Alcantara +150 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: The undercard here isn’t as heavily weighed towards the Brazilians as normal, but it has more to do with this crop of Brazilian fighters being deeply flawed as opposed to the UFC giving them an extremely high quality of opposition. I don’t think you’ll find many people who will argue that Ogle, Proctor or Ronson is going to light the MMA world on fire any time soon, while we’ve seen how mercurial Blanco can be. Charles Oliveira should roll against Andy Ogle. There’s no other way to put it. Ogle’s best asset is often defined as toughness, and that basically means he doesn’t have any skills to prevent himself from getting beaten up, unless his opponent tires out (Josh Grispi provided an excellent example of that). Oliveira is the better striker and grappler, the grappling to such a degree that it won’t even matter if he gets put on his back by Ogle. The UFC was hard pressed to find an opponent Cristiano Marcello could beat, but they may have done it in Joe Proctor. Even in the modern UFC with the expanded roster, I don’t feel like either of these guys belong in the organization, and I’m sure the loser of this fight gets cut. As long as his chin holds up, Marcello could win via being the fighter coming forward a bit more. But this is Cristiano Marcello we’re talking about, if you’re willing to risk your money on his chin you must have really exhausted all other possible bets on this card. Speaking of fighters who have had chin issues in the past, Rodrigo Damm moves back up to lightweight after testing out the waters as a gaunt 145er. I actually prefer him at this weight class, but he will be facing heavier hitters than he did at featherweight. Luckily that’s not an issue here, as Ivan Jorge has never shown a particular predilection for power. In fact, as long as Jorge isn’t able to just push Damm up against the cage, I don’t really see him having a way to win this fight. Unfortunately, the potential for him to push Damm against the cage is way too high for comfort. Francisco Trinaldo is another Brazilian who is very talented, but also his own worst enemy. Since coming to the UFC he’s gone 3-2, winning each of his bouts that has ended prior to the midway point of the second round and losing the pair which has gone past it. That’s going to be the same formula here. If Trinaldo can get the early takedown and submission against Jesse Ronson, he’ll win. If not, he’s going to lose a decision via decision or late (T)KO. This bout should follow a similar path to Ronson’s UFC debut against Michel Prazeres, except that Trinaldo’s cardio is even shakier. Another tough one to bet, as either guy could win and it could go over or under. A fight with a bit clearer read is Alcantara/Reis. Wilson Reis is a perfectly serviceable grinder, but Iuri Alcantara is a man who has given Urijah Faber his toughest test outside of title bouts. With the level of competition Faber has faced, that is incredible praise. He’s going to be more dangerous wherever this fight goes, and I see the same type of fate that befell Reis in his Bellator run: a KO loss to a superior fighter. If that doesn’t happen however, Reis could replicate Faber’s success from late in that fight. Maximo Blanco may be the only fighter in MMA who can challenge Yoel Romero as the weirdest in-cage fighter in the sport. From completely baffling performances (Marcus Brimage), to needless disqualifications (Akira Corassani and Akihiko Mori), to awesome violence (his seven TKO victories), you just never know what you’re going to get with this guy. As a result, this is another extremely tricky fight to bet. An on-point Maximo Blanco should beat Felipe Arantes, but if he doesn’t fight to his full potential, he’ll likely lose to the well-rounded Brazilian. Kicking off the card is the debuting Russian Albert Tumenov, yet another talented prospect coming out of the Caucasus region of the country. Tumenov shares some of the same characteristics as other Russian strikers in that he is very dangerous and has good takedown defense, but can tire as the fight goes on. Against Ildemar Alcantara that shouldn’t be much of a problem, as Alcantara has shown some terrible cardio of his own, and despite being the better grappler here will find himself outmatched in both speed and skill on the feet. Although he’s debuting in Brazil against the Brazilian, I like Tumenov here.
