UFC on FOX 10 January 25, 2014 Heavyweight Matchup: Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Stipe Miocic By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics Big Picture: Co-main eventing this weekend on FOX is a heavyweight matchup that the promotion is hoping will provide some heavy leather on an otherwise very lightweight card. Stipe Miocic (#8) is currently a solid -240 favorite over UFC-veteran Gabriel Gonzaga (#12) at +200. Though Miocic doesn’t have the same name recognition as many other heavyweights, he’s gone 4-1 in the UFC and has earned his top-10 status with dominant performance over division stalwart Roy Nelson. Do the numbers support Miocic as such a clear favorite? Where’s the real value in the lines? Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The Tale of Tape definitely supports Miocic, as he is the younger and rangier fighter. With Gonzaga approaching the age of 35 and giving up a 4-inch reach differential, these factors will give Miocic a big edge in the standup game, especially since Gonzaga has been knocked out a little more often than most. Striking Matchup: The stat-line reveals that Miocic is more of a point striker than a slugger. He has very high accuracy with both his jab and power head strikes, and he likes to mix in the jab plenty – which a good characteristic for rangy fighter. Though he has one TKO loss, he hasn’t officially been dropped in the UFC, while Gonzaga has been knocked down more than any other fighter on the card. Gonzaga has one statistical advantage and that’s his knockdown rate. He packs a punch, and despite Miocic being younger and fresher in his career, he won’t want to take many of them. But Gonzaga is usually unable to keep pace with his opponents, so he’ll be on the receiving end of Miocic’s accurate strikes before getting a chance to counter. In the long-run, this heavily favors Miocic to win rounds on the feet, but also to find the statistically poor chin of Gonzaga eventually. Micioc also was able to avoid the haymakers of Roy Nelson in his last outing, though Gonzaga’s strikes will likely have a little more zip. Grappling Matchup: Gonzaga is definitely the better grappling threat, but that’s only he if wants this one the mat, and actually gets it there. The real question will be whether Miocic can fend off Gonzaga’s takedowns. The strange thing is: Gonzaga doesn’t attempt a lot of takedowns for a grappler. He averages two per round, and converts almost exactly half of those attempts. Miocic simply hasn’t faced many takedowns to confirm whether his takedown defense is solid, but he will certainly be wary of them here. This is where his range advantage and stiff jab will also be useful. The ground game is Gonzaga’s best bet, and he has four prior UFC submission wins to his credit. To date, both fighters have rarely been put on their back, so if either gets top control, someone will be in a tough spot. That said, Gonzaga’s submission game will make Miocic hesitant to work so close, so don’t expect Miocic to initiate and dive into any guillotines or other submissions. If Gonzaga can get control on the mat, there’s where the game changes. Reed’s Pick: Miocic by TKO (click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: Miocic has clear advantages to justify him as a favorite. The trouble though is that this is the heavyweight division, and it only takes a single shot from Gonzaga to end it, or a single mistake from Miocic on the ground. There’s a lot of wild card finishing ability from Gonzaga. Still, I don’t yet see enough value on the underdog to warrant a pick there, not with all these advantages aligned in one direction for the favorite. If you’re playing a parlay, Miocic makes a key ingredient, but there’s also some interesting prop plays. The under is currently -185 for 1.5 rounds. Almost half of all heavyweight fights end inside the first round, but still that price is a little steep. An inside the distance play seems like a lock given Gonzaga’s propensity to win or lose before the final bell, but that will cost you a ridiculous -550. Better to pick a side and go for Miocic ITD at a mere -140. Miocic should have a decent gas tank, so if he doesn’t finish early, he might get more chances as hands start dropping later in the fight. Looking for plus money? Miocic in Round 1 is a reasonable outcome that returns +160, not bad for a flier that could definitely pay out.