With the UFC’s biggest pay-per-view draws dropping like flies towards the end of 2013, there was (and is) a significant gap in the ability to draw large numbers of fans in moving forward. With that in mind, the four shows where the UFC airs on Fox could very well become the biggest shows the company puts on in 2014. Whether that changes the rotating headliners of Demetrious Johnson and Benson Henderson remains to be seen. Of course, for this event we will see Henderson headline his third Fox card – matching the aforementioned Johnson for most in the UFC – but this time in a non-title capacity. The former UFC and WEC champion will find himself across the cage from former Strikeforce champion – and the man who was the top contender for the UFC’s belt prior to yet another Anthony Pettis injury – Josh Thomson. The winner of this bout will find themselves in the forefront of the lightweight title picture, although it is difficult to imagine Henderson getting a third crack at Pettis in such short order. The betting odds have already been released for this bout at Several Bookmakers and the public has backed Henderson early, pushing him from a -210 favorite (bet $210 to win $100) up to -280, where he sits now. The comeback on Thomson sits at +220 (bet $100 to win $220). Lines have also some movement on the co-main event between Stipe Miocic (now -260) and Gabriel Gonzaga (+200). Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened lines for all of the remaining UFC on Fox 10 card at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox, 8pm ET) Benson Henderson -210 Josh Thomson +160 Stipe Miocic -210 Gabriel Gonzaga +160 Donald Cerrone -265 Adriano Martins +185 Jeremy Stephens -130 Darren Elkins -110 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 5pm ET) Sergio Pettis -245 Alex Caceres +175 Eddie Wineland -305 Yves Jabouin +225 Chico Camus -230 Yaotzin Meza +170 Hugo Viana -280 Ramiro Hernandez +200 Daron Cruickshank -210 Mike Rio +160 Mike Rhodes -265 George Sullivan +185 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 4:30pm ET) Walt Harris -260 Nikita Krylov +180 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Lots of fights to talk about here, so I’m not going to go through each one in a ton of detail, but just give some thoughts. I was absolutely shocked at the lack of respect Adriano Martins received against Daron Cruickshank in his UFC debut. Martins is a fighter many had their eyes on for a long time on the regional circuit in Brazil, and for good reason. He has a well-rounded game that can compete with Cerrone wherever this fight goes, but may not be quite enough to get past a 100% Cowboy. While I do expect Cerrone to pull it out, he’s not the most reliable fighter and I can’t play him at such a high line. Jeremy Stephens has been incredibly impressive since dropping to featherweight. He still hits like a truck, but his grappling is far more effective at a weight more apt for his frame. Both of those things will be key against Elkins, who will want to get his wrestling going early and often in this one. I think this fight matches up similarly (although less extreme) than Elkins’ bout with Chad Mendes. I don’t expect Stephens to put him away in a minute, but I do like this fight for Stephens. On the undercard: Don’t let the Pettis name get you too crazy about Sergio in this bout. Alex Caceres has shown surprising development since his stint on ‘The Ultimate Fighter’, and I think this fight is incredibly close. Yves Jabouin is about as good a bounce back fight as Eddie Wineland could hope for. A striker who fades over the course of fights and shows a propensity to get clipped is the perfect recipe for the former WEC champ to get back on track. Camus and Meza are both deeply flawed fighters in their own ways, and while I think Camus has the better overall game, his sometimes baffling fight IQ can’t let me touch him in this one. If Ramiro Hernandez struggled against Lucas Martins, imagine how much worse things will get for him against a faster heavier hitter in Hugo Viana. Cruickshank is a fighter that I expect to win this bout by keeping it on the feet and outpointing Rio, but with how listless he’s looked lately, another fighter who is hard to back in this spot. Rhodes and Sullivan is the bout I have the worst read on here. I’ve seen ‘Biggie’ fight on multiple occasions, but haven’t had a chance to see much more than highlights of Sullivan. I do like what I’ve seen out of Rhodes (hell, he gave Brandon Thatch a tougher fight than his two UFC opponents), but with the unknown on the other side I’ll stay away unless I can find more on Sullivan. Finally, I was going to say “anyone who bets on this fight is a braver man than I,” but then I realized that if the over in this fight is set at 1.5 rounds and is at plus money, I may make a play here myself. Call me crazy, but fatties going over is all the rage these days.
