One of the five main card matchups at UFC 168 is a lightweight affair pitting Jim Miller against Fabricio “Morango” Camoes. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Miller as a -365 betting favorite (bet $365 to win $100), while Camoes is a +305 underdog (bet $100 to win $305). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened Miller up at -270 and Camoes at +190, meaning the betting public is so far coming in big time on Miller. I actually agree with the betting public here as I am also picking Miller to win this fight. Here’s why. Miller (22-4, 1 NC) is one of the top lightweight fighters in the world. The 30-year-old American holds notable career victories over current UFC fighters Joe Lauzon, Melvin Guillard, Charles Oliveira, Gleison Tibau, Mark Bocek, Mac Danzig, and Matt Wiman, and he’s defeated those fighters with his combination of solid wrestling, a sick submission game, and improving muay Thai skills. Although he has only two wins in his last five outings, consider that the two losses he’s had came to Nate Diaz and Benson Henderson — two of the best lightweight fighters in the world — and he had a No Contest to Pat Healy, who beat Miller but who failed his post-fight drug test and had the W taken away. In fact, other than Henderson and Diaz, the only other career losses for Miller came to Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, two more great fighters. Basically, Miller only loses to the cream of the crop of the UFC lightweight division, and Camoes is far from that. Camoes (14-7-1) hasn’t competed in nearly a year-and-a-half since a decision loss to Guillard at UFC 148. That’s a long time to be away from the cage, especially considering Camoes is 35 years old now, and especially considering he’s going up against Miller, one of the best lightweight fighters in the world. As far as Camoes’ strengths go, he is a solid BJJ practitioner and he has some underrated knockout power. As well, he has a lot of experience in the fight game, and even went 25 minutes with MMA legend Anderson Silva back in 1997. The problem with Camoes is that he hasn’t been very active in his career, and he’s also fallen when he’s stepped up in competition. I think there’s a lot of fighters on the UFC roster that Camoes would beat, but I believe Miller is a bad matchup for him and I don’t see this fight going his way. I see Miller being better than Camoes at pretty much every aspect of MMA, so whether this fight takes place on the mat or in the standup, I see Miller getting the better of most striking/grappling exchanges and winning a judges’ decision. I could also see Miller being able to take the back of Camoes during a scramble to collect a rear-naked choke win. Basically, every time I picture how this fight goes, I see Miller being the one who gets his hand raised, and I would honestly be pretty shocked if Camoes pulled off the upset here at UFC 168. I had capped Miller at -400, so I actually see a bit of value in him, even though I know there are many people who I respect in the MMA betting community that believe he is overvalued in this spot. I just think that even though Miller is on a decline, Camoes still doesn’t even hold a candle to him and I fully expect Miller to pick up at least a decision victory here and maybe even a submission. At -365, I wouldn’t recommend a straight play on Miller, but he is definitely someone to consider for a two- or three-team parlay at UFC 168.
