The very first fight of the night at UFC Fight Night 33 is a welterweight matchup pitting UFC newcomer Alex Garcia against TUF Smashes vet Ben Wall. The current betting line for the matchup at Several Bookmakers sees Garcia as a -535 favorite (bet $535 to win $100) while the comeback on Wall is +420 (bet $100 to win $420). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Garcia at -380 and Wall at +260, meaning the betting public has come in heavy on Garcia so far. I agree with the betting public here as I believe Garcia will win this fight, and do so in dominating fashion. Here’s why. Garcia (10-1) is a highly-touted prospect out of TriStar Gym in Montreal. Training with beasts like UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre and Rory MacDonald on an everyday basis, there’s no doubt in my mind that the 26-year-old has improved a ton since his lone career loss to UFC vet Seth Baczynski in 2009. The stats prove it, as since that loss (which came via second-round KO after Garcia was winning the fight early on) Garcia has won four straight fights while competing in his adopted home province of Quebec. All told, he’s won nine of his 10 career victories by way of knockout or submission, and if you watch tape on this guy, you will see he’s not a typical point-fighting TriStar fighter, but rather a brutal finisher. This guy is a stud prospect, and there’s a lot of hype behind him in Canada. And this Friday against Wall, he will have a chance to show the world how good he really is. Wall (7-0-1) was a competitor on TUF Smashes and is taking this fight against Garcia on short notice, filling in for an injured Andreas Stahl. He is also moving up a weight class, as he normally fights at lightweight. The 24-year old Aussie is more of a grinder/wrestling type of fighter, with a good submission game if he can take his opponents down. He is also tough and durable. However, he lacks in finishing ability and he doesn’t have the dynamic striking that Garcia possesses, meaning he will likely try to drag Garcia to the ground and push him up against the fence to score points and try to eek out a decision win. Since Garcia has solid takedown defense and is the bigger man, I just can’t see Wall outmuscling him, and therefore I don’t see a clear path to victory for the hometown fighter. In short, this seems like a very bad matchup for him, and I would be shocked if he pulled off the upset. Garcia is a -525 favorite here and while that is high, I can see why people have been parlaying him, as he should win this fight via stoppage. For me, that line doesn’t have enough value to play it, but I’ll be looking for the prop on Garcia wins inside the distance here, and if it’s available at near a Pick ’em price, it may be worth a play, as I believe he wins this fight by T/KO or submission most of the time. As for Wall, I don’t think I could play him at any price in this particular matchup.
