Despite a full slate this weekend that will see cards from the likes of World Series of Fighting, Invicta, Legacy and Cage Warriors, one card will garner the lion’s share of the attention as usual and that’s the UFC Fight Night 33 card. Interestingly enough, prior to the main card airing fans are about as likely to recognize fighters from any of those aforementioned cards as the UFC event taking place in Australia. There are seven fighters making their organizational debut on Saturday morning, which is an enormous amount even given the ever expanding UFC roster. From gambling perspective this also makes the undercard very tricky to handicap, as the step up in competition and exposure can often affect fighter performance. Yesterday, leading MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the full odds for the main card of UFC Fight Night 33, and today he followed that up by releasing the complete undercard odds for the card at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 9pm ET) Mark Hunt -125 Antonio Silva -115 Mauricio Rua -160 James Te Huna +120 Ryan Bader -585 Anthony Perosh +385 Pat Barry -260 Soa Palelei +180 Clint Hester -145 Dylan Andrews +105 Julie Kedzie -190 Bethe Correia +150 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 2, 7pm ET) Takeya Mizugaki -270 Nam Phan +190 Nick Ring -230 Caio Magalhaes +170 Justin Scoggins -150 Richie Vaculik +110 Bruno Santos -190 Krzysztof Jotko +150 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 6:30pm ET) Alex Garcia -380 Ben Wall +260 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: I hope you guys have been doing your research for these fights, because chances are there isn’t a great understanding of most of these fighters off the top of even diehard fight fans’ heads. The good thing about that is if you do the proper research there’s usually some value in the lines. The Kedzie/Correia fight, which has been bumped to the main card is another case where a long-time standard bearer for the women’s game is taking on a relative newcomer to the sport. In most recent cases the younger fighter has not only won, but dominated these fights. Personally, I’m not sure she’ll dominate, but I expect Bethe Correia to be very competitive here. She has already faced and beaten better grapplers than Kedzie, and she has an effective striking game from training with the Pitbull brothers. Kedzie is a popular figure, and that seems to go a long way in swaying the public’s opinion in these female fights, so maybe the line on Correia will get even better, even though it’s closer to a pick em fight. A fight that everyone should have a good read on is Mizugaki/Phan. Phan’s deficiencies aren’t going to be corrected by dropping to 135, and those same holes in his game fit almost perfectly into what Mizugaki likes to do. I see being on the receiving end of takedowns and a whole lot of ground and pound in Phan’s future. However, should Mizugaki stand and trade, the striking will be very competitive. Probably the trickiest fight of the bunch for me is between Ring and Magalhaes, likely because one guy doesn’t really deserve to be in the UFC, and the other seems to be on a decline that will likely find him out of the UFC if he can’t right the ship quickly. I favor Ring because he is far more well-rounded, but can’t trust his broken down body with my money. This screams dog or pass, and my answer is pass. I’ll be honest, I think this line is lower than it should be because of some action on other books earlier in the day. On the At Odds MMA Show, all three panelists picked Scoggins to win and do so impressively. He has an excellent combination of karate-based striking, power, takedown defence and cardio that I just don’t see Vaculik having the answers for. Bruno Santos was able to escape Bellator purgatory by going over 18 months between fights after dropping out of their middleweight tournament in 2012. He takes on fellow undefeated prospect Krzysztof Jotko. Jotko is much more dangerous finisher than Santos, but Bruno has advantages in wrestling and the ability to control opponents. I think that Santos can put those skills to good use here en route to another decision victory. Finally, a fighter that I may be slightly biased towards due to seeing him come up through the Canadian regional scene is Alex Garcia. I’ve been highly impressed with him thus far in his career, even in defeat. I’m not as familiar with Ben Wall, but from watching tape on him I just don’t see what he really threatens Garcia with. It should be an opening bout that keeps the home crowd quiet.
