UFC Fight Night 33 December 7, 2013 Heavyweight: Mark Hunt vs. Antonio Silva By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics Big Picture: Two gritty heavyweights are both coming off TKO losses to top division opponents in May. Now rested, they get thrown back into the cage where one will rebound and one will drop further from contention. Number four-ranked heavyweight Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva opens as a slight -150 favorite over unranked Mark Hunt at +130. The rankings agree with the favorite and underdog here, but let’s see if the numbers match up. Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: Lots to consider on the Tape here. First, both fighters are over 34 years old, and Hunt is almost 40. In MMA years, this is pretty much the end of the line for any kind of knockdown resiliency. Because this fight is a heavyweight fight between two guys with knockdown power and who also display a tendency to eat a few punches over the course of the fight, that means this could be over quickly. Both fighters will fight Orthodox, but Silva will live up to his Bigfoot moniker with a huge eight-inch reach advantage. The Tale of the Tape leans towards Silva, but more importantly it screams “KO.” Striking Matchup: Here’s where we hope it will go down. Despite being at a reach differential in virtually all of his fights, former K-1 kickboxer Mark Hunt is still an expert striker who has finished a number of larger opponents, even UFC-caliber ones. His knockdown rate and standup pace are a little higher than average, while his head striking accuracy is extremely high. On the flipside, Silva also has good knockdown power that is slightly higher than Hunt’s, but lower accuracy. His power hand lags the division average, though he does have a decent jab, which is typical of rangy fighters. In terms of defense, both fighters have low head-strike defense, meaning they eat more head strikes than average. Hunt eats a few more than Silva. Punch for punch though, it’s Silva that has much poorer knockdown resiliency (“chin”), and in fact has one of the lowest ratings in the division. Given the combination of factors here, it’s likely that Silva will land the first strikes, but Hunt will eventually get inside and land the more devastating ones. Grappling Matchup: Silva has more pedigree on the ground than the kickboxer, Hunt, and we’ve seen Silva use his top game to win big fights (e.g., his ground and pound finish of Emelianenko). Silva has a black belt in BJJ, but rarely actually uses his submission skills. That’s a missed opportunity for Silva if he doesn’t use that here. Six of Hunt’s eight losses have been by submission, though admittedly none have occurred since 2010 in his UFC debut. Though he was outgrappled by Stefan Struve, Hunt somehow managed to survive against of one of the most active submission artists in the heavyweight division – long enough to win by a rare late TKO. The trick here will be whether Silva tries to get this to the floor. If his coaches are diligent, they will be telling him not to stand and trade. But historically Silva only attempts one takedown per round on average, and lands a below average share of them. If Hunt can defend the early attempts and buy a few stand-up exchanges, that could be all he needs to land a knockout blow. If not, he’ll need all the wiliness he demonstrated against Struve to survive the ground game and hope that Bigfoot tires out enough to reluctantly try striking on the feet. Reed’s Pick: Hunt by TKO (click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: Despite being at a reach and age disadvantage, the performance metrics really favor Hunt if this stays standing. And in that case, Hunt should eventually land a few heavy shots that will drop Silva for a KO or TKO finish. Silva should try to get this to the ground, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to get it there, or will be able to submit Hunt if he does. The threat of Silva winning on the ground should keep the betting line close. Despite his years, however, Hunt is showing that apparently you can teach an old dog submission defense. The funny thing is (at least at the time of this writing) that the moneyline for Hunt Inside the Distance (ITD) is +120, while Hunt to Win is +130. That’s a higher return for a less specific outcome, which, of course, completely irrational. That probably reflects lots of early action coming in specifically on Hunt by TKO, such that some people probably missed the fact that a straight up win offered a slightly higher return. Whoever said MMA betting markets are efficient? Not this guy. A Fight Won’t Go the Distance play at -900, or even the Under of 1.5 rounds at -170 won’t offer as much return as a straight up pick on Hunt, but clearly the Under is more reasonable. Hunt’s most likely to finish it by strikes, but if you’re trying to maximize your betting return don’t overlook a straight-up play. On the flipside, a Silva by Submission finish might offer a reasonable return later in the week. Consider it as a long-shot play or a hedge against a larger Hunt bet.