The TUF 18 Finale takes place tonight live from Las Vegas, NV, and as always bettors have been given a fight card that could make them a lot of money if they predict the fights correctly. Specifically, prop bets, which give some really juicy odds on a number of possible outcomes. I’ve combed through the list of prop bets at Several Bookmakers, and here are five that I believe have a chance of cashing. Nate Diaz wins by three-round decision (+288) In the main event of the evening, Nate Diaz and Gray Maynard face off in a trilogy fight after Diaz won their first encounter via submission and Maynard won the second via decision. I feel like the third fight is going to head to the scorecards, too, but this time I see Diaz doing enough to get his hand raised. And at +288, I think there’s some value in this prop. Julianna Pena vs. Jessica Rakoczy doesn’t go the distance (-105) In the TUF 18 women’s bantamweight finale, Julianna Pena fights Jessica Rakoczy in a fight I can’t see going the distance. I believe either fighter will get the stoppage here — Pena via submission or Rakoczy via KO — so at a Pick ’em price at -105, counting on a finish in this fight may be worthy of a small play. Raquel Pennington wins inside the distance (-105) In the opening bout of the main card, Raquel Pennington takes on Roxanne Modafferi in a fight that I believe is custom made to get her her first UFC win. Look for Modafferi to wilt and for Pennington to get the stoppage win in this one. And at only -105, I believe there’s value in a bet here on Pennington inside the distance instead of on the moneyline, which is at -350. Jared Rosholt vs. Walt Harris doesn’t go the distance (-425) In a heavyweight prelim bout, Jared Rosholt takes on Walt Harris in a fight I can’t see going the full 15 minutes. I think either fighter gets finished within three rounds in this one, so at -425 I believe there’s some value on the prop of this fight not going the distance as I think that prop should be closer to -600. Ryan Benoit wins inside the distance (+233) In the opening fight of the night, Ryan Benoit and Josh Sampo go toe-to-toe in a flyweight bout. Both of these fighters are making their respective UFC debuts and I’m looking forward to both of them showing off their wares in the UFC. However, when Sampo missed weight on Friday, coming in at 127.5 pounds, I immediately threw up the caution flag on him. Sampo looked really bad on the scale and I have a feeling he’s going to get KOed, so at +233, I see value on the Benoit inside the distance prop.
