The finale of the TUF 18 men’s bantamweight tournament is a three-round fight between Chris Holdsworth and Davey Grant. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers has Holdsworth as a -205 favorite (bet $205 to win $100), while Grant is a +165 dog (bet $100 to win $165). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Holdsworth as a -265 favorite and Grant as a +185 dog, meaning the betting public so far is favoring Grant. I disagree with the public, though, as I am picking Holdsworth to win this fight. Here’s why. Holdsworth (4-0) was Team Tate’s second overall male pick, and the third male selected on the show behind Cody Bollinger and Chris Beal. The 26-year old is a fantastic wrestler and trains out of Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, Calif. He is also a very good striker and has terrific submissions in his tool bag. Basically, he’s an extremely well-rounded fighter and it’s not surprising that he made it all the way to the finals, as many were picking him to win the show before it began. For some reason, though, he fell to the third pick among the men and Team Tate ended up getting a steal, as Holdsworth defeated Beal and Michael Wootten to make the finals. Of all the male fighters in the house, it’s possible that none improved as much as Holdsworth did, and that bodes well for his chances to defeat Grant in the finale. Grant (8-1) was Team Rousey’s second overall male pick as well, behind only Bollinger, Beal, and Holdsworth. The 27-year old Brit was unknown to me before the show began, but now that the show is over I know exactly who he is as he impressed with his submission win over Louis Fisette in the quarterfinals. However, he never got a second fight as his opponent missed weight and he was given a bye to the finals. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing, actually, as he didn’t get a second fight in the house to gain experience, while Holdsworth did. Even saying that, I definitely saw the improvements that Grant made during his time in the house, and I think he has what it takes to make this finale against Holdsworth competitive. However, I believe that Grant’s strengths play into Holdsworth’s strengths, and I’m not sure if that’s a good thing for him — actually, I think it’s a very bad thing, and I see it leading to his downfall in this particular spot. I believe that Holdsworth is the better fighter everywhere. I’m thinking that this fight will hit the ground at some point and Holdsworth will be able to sink in a fight-ending submission, possibly an arm triangle or rear-naked choke. At -205, I believe there’s value in this line as I thought he should have been close to -300, and I like him as the first leg of a two-team parlay. Bet accordingly.
