The main card match-up at UFC Fight Night 32 that I’m most looking forward to tomorrow night (Nov. 9, 2013) other than the main event is a welterweight bout between Brandon Thatch and Paulo Thiago. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Thatch as a -330 favorite (bet $330 to win $100) while the comeback on Thiago is +270 (bet $100 to win $270). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the contest with Thatch as a -230 favorite and Thiago as a +170 dog, meaning there has been significant action on Thatch so far. I agree with the early money coming in on the American Thatch defeating the Brazilian Thiago on his home soil. Here’s why: Thatch (10-1) had one of the more impressive Octagon debuts in recent memory when he obliterated Justin Edwards in 83 seconds at UFC Fight Night 27 in August. The 28-year-old entered UFC with a lot of hype behind him and he proved that everyone who was high on him was right, because he just destroyed Edwards in every way possible, and he did it in quick order too. In fact, all of Thatch’s 10 career victories have come in the first round via T/KO or submission, and he’s only lost once in his whole career, a close split decision back in Strikeforce. He is absolutely one of the top prospects in the UFC welterweight division, and if he can take out Thiago in devastating fashion at UFC Fight Night 32 like I expect him to, you can be sure the UFC will try to fast track him up the ladder. With Thiago (15-5), you have a fading veteran who is likely on his last legs as a UFC fighter. Although everyone remembers his amazing debut against Josh Koscheck from UFC 95, the truth is that was Thiago’s brightest spot and he really hasn’t looked good at all since then save for a submission win over Mike Swick at UFC 109. One of Brazil’s most beloved fighters, Thiago has lost four of his last six fights and to me it really seems like he’s being served on a platter to Thatch in this spot as the UFC tries to capitalize on getting him a big win over a vet and making him a star. I don’t see many ways Thiago can win this fight as I expect him to struggle trying to get Thatch on the ground. On the feet there’s no doubt that Thatch is a superior fighter. I guess Thiago could clip Thatch — he does have some power, so you never know — but I think it’s much more likely he’s the only getting clipped and KOed cold. At -330, I really like Thatch for parlays and the other bet I like on the board for this fight is “the fight does not go the distance” at -300. I don’t think this fight makes it all three rounds so as long as there’s a finish, you’ll win some cash. And I’m counting on a finish happening here.
