Gabe Killian’s Bellator 106 Betting Results Recap

chandler-alvarez-articleBellator 106 took place this past Saturday night (Nov. 2, 2013) and we had an up and down night with suggested bets. Our first bet for the Bellator 106 card was a moderate play on Akop Stepanyan -180, who I’m starting to think has the worst luck in MMA history. Every fight he has lost, he was doing very well in until something terrible happened. In his promotional debut against Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Wagney Fabiano, the Armenian was beating Fabiano on the feet until getting taken down and put in an armbar. Next, he faced another Brazilian in Marlon Sandro and did well against against him. Stepanyan was deducted a point for grabbing the fence, but even considering that fact, he still deserved the decision. Instead, Sandro was awarded a majority decision, completely robbing Stepanyan. He followed that up with a third round TKO win over TUF/UFC vet Chris Saunders, but the bad luck immediately followed. Most recently, he battled Strikeforce veteran Justin Wilcox and he was completely dominating Wilcox on the feet, but the instance the fight hit the mat, Wilcox secured a rear naked choke and Stepanyan went to sleep. It looked like the fight was about to be stopped, as he was badly hurting Wilcox with his kicks. It seemed as if it was going to be an easy win for the Armenian, but it did not play out that way. Finally, at Bellator 106, Stepnyan squared-off against another striker in Mike Richman. It was a back and forth fight on the feet, but he was getting the better of Richman, landing the more significant strikes. He hurt Richman and nearly finished him, but Richman immediately recovered and knocked Stepanyan down with a punch. Stepanyan’s head bounced off the mat, and Richman followed up with a double-hammerfist, at which point Herb Dean stepped in to stop the fight. Stepanyan immediately started to protest, and while I initially thought he was out, the replays showed that he still had his wits about him. It seemed like a good stoppage in the moment, so you can’t really blame the referee, I suppose, but after watching the replays, he probably could have been able to continue. We lost that bet and moved on to the next fight, where we had a small-to-moderate value play on Mike Bronzoulis +180. The Greek was doing well against Joe Riggs, as he got the better of him on the feet for the first three minutes of the first round. Things went sour when Riggs scored a trip takedown over him, and without doing much, did enough to win the round in the eyes of the judges, even though Bronzoulis managed to get back up to his feet. Riggs noticed that he can easily control Bronzoulis on the mat, so he continued to do the same in rounds two and three. However, it’s The Greek’s poor fight IQ that allowed it to happen, as he kept clinching with Riggs, rather than staying at striking distance and continuing to deliver leg kicks, which he was finding incredible success with in the first three minutes of the fight. If Bronzoulis had a good fight IQ, or any IQ at all, he could have easily won this fight. Unfortunately, he fought like a dunce and we lost along with him. In the main event of the evening, we had our final play on Eddie Alvarez +220 over Michael Chandler to regain the Bellator lightweight title. The fight started off as exciting as anyone expected, with some good action on the feet, and a near finish on the mat. It was a very close round that could have gone either way, but because of the takedown and near finish, I personally scored it for Chandler. In the second round, Alvarez dropped Chandler to one knee towards the end of the round, but because of the takedowns Chandler scored, I scored the round a 10-10, making it 20-19 Chandler on my scorecard going into the third. Much like the second round, Alvarez was getting the better of Chandler on the feet in the third, but because of the takedowns, I again scored it a draw, making it 30-29 Chandler on my scorecard heading into the championship rounds. The fourth round clearly went to Chandler, for scoring a takedown and getting in a couple minutes of vicious ground and pound. Once we reached the midway point of the round, we enjoyed seeing our play on Alvarez/Chandler Over 3.5 rounds +110 deliciously cash. As we head into the fifth and final round, I have it 40-38 for Chandler on my scorecard. I gave round five to Alvarez, as he clearly did more than enough to secure it. On my scorecard, I had Chandler winning the fight 49-48, but luckily, the rounds I scored 10-10, the judges scored for Alvarez. Takedowns usually win rounds/fights, but over the past couple of months, it seems that has not been the case. “I foresee a close, back and forth battle, similar to the first fight, but contrary to popular opinion, I think this one will make its way to the judges scorecards,” I said in my article, where I made a spot-on prediction in saying that Alvarez would walk away with a 47-48, 48-47, 48-47 split-decision victory. To wrap things up, we lost a moderate play on Stepanyan -180 and a small-to-moderate play on Bronzoulis +180, but we won moderate plays on Alvarez +220 and Alvarez/Chandler o3.5 +110, making us 2-2 for a nicely profitable evening. I look to continue strong with two UFC Fight Night cards coming right up, so stay with me…

Written by Gabe Killian

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