One of the main card fights at UFC Fight Night 30 with title implications is a flyweight match between John Lineker and Phil Harris. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers sees Lineker as a -380 betting favorite (bet $380 to win $100), while Harris is a +315 underdog (bet $100 to win $315). The line has essentially stayed the same to where MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened it (-400 for Lineker and +280 for Harris). To be honest, though, I’m surprised the public hasn’t taken Lineker above the current -380 mark, because I personally see him winning this fight all day and I’d be pretty shocked if Harris were to come through as the dog. Here’s why. Lineker is currently 3-1 in the UFC flyweight division with wins over Yasuhiro Urushitani, Azamat Gashimov, and Jose Tome. His lone loss came to Louis Gaudinot at UFC on FOX 3 in a fight that Lineker was winning up until he gassed and left his neck exposed for a guillotine choke. He also had some major problems behind the scenes before that bout. But before he got choked out, Lineker was hitting Gaudinot in the face with every once of strength in his body, and if Gaudinot didn’t have an iron chin he would have been knocked out quickly, just like Lineker did to Gashimov and Tome. Although Harris is obviously tough if he’s on the UFC roster, I don’t think his chin is as solid as Gaudinot’s is and if he gets his face hit by Lineker a bunch of times as I expect, I don’t think he’s going to be able to survive. Harris definitely impressed everyone in his recent win over Ulysses Gomez as a decent-sized dog, but that was a very close fight and a different set of judges could have easily given that one to Gomez. Unlike Gomez, who was content to just kickbox on the outside with Harris, Lineker is going to be pushing forward throwing bombs the whole time and considering how much Harris got hit by Gomez in their fight, I don’t like his chances against Lineker if the fight plays out similarly, which I expect it to since I doubt Harris is going to be able to take Lineker down. I know -380 might seems steep for a flyweight, but Lineker isn’t your typical flyweight. This isn’t a guy who likes to go to decision and leave it in the judges’ hands — this is a guy who finishes fights, and that’s the kind of fighter I like betting on. Since I think Lineker is going to get the finish in this fight, the prop that I am eyeing is UNDER 2.5 rounds, which is currently priced at -135. I think that’s a very fair price to pay for a fight that I see ending inside the distance more often than not, and that’s the total I will be laying my own cash on.
