This weekend, the last of Bellator’s season nine tournament finalists will be determined, as the lightweight semifinals will move two fighters a step closer to a shot at the belt currently held by Michael Chandler. The two matches have a fair amount of intrigue, as Saad Awad looks to replicate his success in last season’s tournament against Will Brooks, while Russian prospect Alexander Sarnavskiy continues to attempt to fulfil his potential against Ricardo Tirloni. Further down the card, we’ll see what could very well be a short heavyweight tilt between Mighty Mo and Ron Sparks. Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for Bellator 105 at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– Lightweight Tournament Semifinal Will Brooks -185 Saad Awad +145 Lightweight Tournament Semifinal Alexander Sarnavskiy -405 Ricardo Tirloni +285 Siala Mou-Siliga -380 Ron Sparks +260 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: The rematch between Awad and Brooks is an interesting fight, and one that I find difficult to bet. Obviously we saw what happened in their first encounter with Awad getting the quick KO, but bother fighters have made improvements since that time. Brooks’ striking looks much crisper in this tournament, while Awad has refined his grappling game a bit more. I still expect Awad to have the overall advantage on the feet, with Brooks owning the wrestling advantage, but I simply don’t know which one is going win the day. That said, if you can get Awad at even half of his line in their previous fight (he closed at +405), you have to bet him in what I think is a toss up fight. Keep an eye out. The other semifinal is a bit easier to read. Looking at the way the brackets were set up for this tournament, my gut tells me that Bellator wanted to get ‘Tiger’ into the finals, and I expect him to do just that. Tirloni has a well-rounded game which means that he shouldn’t get overwhelmed here, but he also doesn’t fight with nearly enough urgency to overcome a fighter like Sarnavskiy. Even though bettors are wary of the Russian due to some of his previous issues with fight IQ, I expect this number to climb from parlay action. There have been a lot of heavyweight fights lately that have gone over their round total when they weren’t expected to, and there’s been quite a bit of money to be made on those props. Don’t expect that to be something that happens in this bout, unless Ron Sparks has suddenly improved his striking, defense and chin at the ripe age of 38. I realize that Mo is even older at 43, but he’s got a far superior striking game, and that vaunted Samoan chin. So unless Sparks has improved his striking to the point where he can technically outpoint Mo while avoiding the counters, this one is likely to end early in Mo’s favor. It’s a Bellator heavyweight fight, so I don’t necessarily feel comfortable laying juice on any particular fighter, but the under in this bout seems highly likely.
