After an eight-month absence the UFC will return to England the night before Halloween, although not with the card that was originally planned. Joe Silva and Sean Shelby had heavily stacked this event with as many Englishmen as possible, but the injury bug has bitten the hometown fighters particularly hard. Michael Bisping, Tom Watson and Paul Taylor were all forced out of their bouts, but the organization has done an admirable job of finding replacements, and we’re still left with an intriguing set of bouts for October 30th. The main event now features Lyoto Machida taking on Mark Munoz in Machida’s middleweight debut. Currently Machida is expected to make a successful debut as the odds have him listed as a -380 favorite (bet $380 to win $100) at Several Bookmakers. British fighters Ross Pearson, Jimi Manuwa, Norman Parke and Phil Harris will all be featured on the main card as well. Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the odds for the remaining main card bouts for UFC Fight Night 30. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (FOX Sports 2, 3 p.m. ET) Lyoto Machida -380 Mark Munoz +260 Melvin Guillard -175 Ross Pearson +135 Jimi Manuwa -210 Ryan Jimmo +160 Norman Parke -165 Jon Tuck +125 Alessio Sakara -230 Nicholas Musoke +170 John Lineker -400 Phil Harris +280 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 11:45 a.m. ET) Andrew Craig -260 Luke Barnatt +180 Cole Miller -245 Andy Ogle +175 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: There are a couple of interesting spots here, depending on how much you trust the hometown fighters. I haven’t documented the numbers on the English cards, but I can’t imagine Brits have the same sort of hometown success that Brazilians enjoy, simply because the quality of fighters to come out of those two countries is so disparate. That said, the co-main event could be a good spot to back Pearson as a dog. Guillard is the more dangerous of the two fighters, but he’s also less durable. We’ve seen spots in the past where jabs have dropped Guillard, while the only time Pearson has truly been hurt on the feet was by Cub Swanson. Either man has the capability to knock the other out here, so it depends on Guillard’s gameplan, as he also sports a wrestling advantage. The line rightly favors Melvin at this point, but depending on the props on Pearson inside the distance or by (T)KO, some value may lie there. Whereas Pearson could have some value as a dog, Jimi Manuwa is in a tough spot here despite being a favorite. If he gets bet up based on the hype behind him, Ryan Jimmo could present some value. Jimmo’s measured style should be able to take Manuwa deep into this fight, where we’ve seen him struggle in the past. There have been numerous instances of late where highly touted “prospects” (I struggle to refer to the 33 year-old Manuwa as a prospect) who have finished all of their fights early have stumbled when pushed a bit harder, and this could be another case of the same happening. The next two fights really don’t belong on a UFC main card even if they do involve British fighters. That said, I haven’t focused any attention on these fights as of yet but my lean is that the Parke/Tuck line is in the right spot. Parke is a solid — if unspectacular — fighter, and Tuck struggled at times with Tiequan Zhang in his official UFC debut. The Sakara/Musoke requires some more tape study, but I don’t necessarily think this is the spot to fade Sakara despite his numerous liabilities. Kicking off the televised card, John Lineker seems poised to add another impressive stoppage to his UFC resume against Phil Harris. Lineker fights at a higher pace, has more power, and has the wrestling to avoid the only real threat which Harris presents, his submission game. I am very confident that Lineker will emerge victorious here, but by the time I get around to placing a bet, I can imagine the line may have already been bet well beyond where it opened here. The two preliminary fights that have been opened offer a couple of middleweights who are likely to look like they’re fighting in slow motion, as Andrew Craig and Luke Barnatt aren’t exactly fleet of hand or foot but do like to fight at a high volume. That could favor Barnatt in this one, especially with his improved takedown defense. As for the Miller/Ogle fight, it is a typical Andy Ogle fight where he is outmatched from a skill perspective, but his toughness and cardio always keeps him in fights.
