UFC Fight Night 29, what a night. Let me rephrase: what an awful night. Only my fourth losing UFC event of 2013 (and second in my months writing for MMA Odds Breaker), but certainly the worst. The night started off very strong with back to back plays cashing, starting with my recommended bet on Chris Cariaso +145 over Illiarde Santos in the second bout of the evening. I was going to do an article for that fight and even had my notes ready, but I would not have been able to get it up on time, so instead, I gave the play out on Twitter. Those following me on there @GabeKillianMMA saw it and hopefully cashed along with me. In another recommended bet on Twitter for the next bout, Yan Cabral -3.5 (-225) easily cashed. Things immediately took a turn in the next bout, where -335 favorite Ildemar Alcantara got upset by TUF reject Igor Araujo, in a Brazilian vs Brazilian scrap many expected to be a walk in the park for Alcantara. I had recommended a play on him, my first of the night for MMA Odds Breaker. Alcantara lost the fight because he gassed early and could not get out from under Araujo whenever the fight hit the mat. The combination of Araujo’s excellent grappling and Alcantara’s empty gas tank did not work in Alcantara’s favor, as judges scored the bout for Araujo. Personally, I scored two rounds to one for Alcantara and feel the judges robbed Alcantara. They scored round two for Araujo because he had top control for the last two minutes, and that is not how I score it. I score it for Alcantara because he did more in the first three minutes than Araujo did in the last two with his top control. I predicted Alcantara to win a unanimous decision, but it ended up going the other way. Shameful scoring, in my opinion. I’m not crying too hard about this one, though. Next, we got hurt on what I believe was another poor judges decision when the Brazilian Raphael Assuncao upset the favorite TJ Dillashaw, in a fight I personally scored for Dillashaw. Each fighter notched one of the pair of rounds heading into the third, which was a close round that Dillashaw was more effective in. I probably could see that round being scored a 10-10, but no way can I see it being scored for Assuncao. I do not agree with that call, whatsoever. The main card has just started and we have already experienced our second mugging of the night, and losing a bet on Dillashaw -240 and two prop bets in the process. Things got worse as we moved up to the light heavyweight division, in a fight which Joey Beltran got the better of the Brazilian Fabio Maldonado, but ended up losing a split decision, giving me three robberies on the night. While Bruce Buffer was reading the judges scorecards and announced one judge had scored the bout for Maldonado, Beltran immediately went into disbelief, and it looked clear as if he knew he was just about to get robbed. The poor judges’ decision cost me my plays on Beltran moneyline and Beltran by Dec, both at nice dog odds. This makes it three robberies in one night, certainly a new record for me. On the plus side, my recommended play on the over 2.5 came through. The next loss was a recommended play on the Brazilian Erick Silva -240 over the Korean Dong Hyun Kim. After losing the first round, Silva came back strong in the second and was quite dominant against Kim, nearly stopping him on a couple of occasions, but ended up getting caught in an exchange and suffered a flush knockout. Along with the straight play, we lost two prop bets. Finally, we experience a record-setting (for me, anyway) fourth robbery of the evening, with Damien Maia losing a split decision to Jake Shields, in a fight I scored rounds 1, 4, and 5 for Maia. Most agreed, but unfortunately, judges did not. I finished going 1-11 with recommended bets, largely due to 4 fights resulting in bad decisions. Not only was it my worst night of the year, but it very well is the worst night I’ve ever had. I will look to bounce back strong with UFC 166 and cards in between.
