One of the fights that is flying under the radar at UFC Fight Night 29 is a welterweight matchup between TUF Brazil 2 alum Yan Cabral and American David Mitchell. Cabral is currently a -270 favorite (bet $270 to win $100) at Several Bookmakers while Mitchell is a +230 (bet $100 to win $230) underdog. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened Cabral at -260 and Mitchell at +180, meaning the public likes the hometown Brazilian more thus far. Personally, though, I think this is a very close fight and I’m thinking Mitchell at +230 is worth a small play. Here’s why. I know Cabral (10-0) has a flashy record, and if you compare resumes on paper that he should blow past Mitchell — one guy’s best win is Sakuraba, one guy’s best win is War Machine — but fights are all about styles and the more I think about this fight the more I think Mitchell matches up favorably with Cabral. Both fighters’ strength is certainly their BJJ, but I have a feeling Cabral will struggle to take the bigger Mitchell down to the ground. In his first few fights in the UFC, Mitchell pulled guard and also let his opponents take him down on purpose because he likes fighting on his back. But in his last fight at UFC 162 against Mike Pierce, one of the strongest wrestlers in the UFC welterweight division, Mitchell was able to stuff most of the takedowns which showed his sub-10 percent takedown defense was a flawed stat. Although he was eventually TKOed by Pierce in the second round, it still wasn’t a bad performance all things considered and that’s why he is being given another fight in the UFC despite his ugly 1-3 record in the Octagon. On the feet, Mitchell isn’t a world beater by any means but against Simeon Thoresen at UFC on FOX 2 he showed he isn’t as bad as we thought he was as he was able to hurt Thoresen and win a decision as a +200 underdog. Cabral does train with Nova Uniao so he has decent stand-up, but he uses it more-so to set up his takedowns rather than to outpoint his opponents, and he was zero TKO wins in his career (all 10 of his wins are by submission). Mitchell has no TKO wins either, by the way, so don’t expect a knockout in this fight. In fact, I would be quite shocked if either guy stopped each other with strikes. I just have a feeling the fight is going to look a lot like Mitchell vs. Thoresen and I think it’s going to hit the judges’ scorecards and be a nail biter. So for what I see as more or less a coin flip kind of fight if it hits the cards, I’m taking Mitchell at +230, but I won’t go as big on it as I normally would in this situation as the fight is taking place in Brazil and the threat of a bad decision is always a scare.
