After nearly a five-month absence, the premiere Canadian MMA organization returns with a bang, as Maximum Fighting Championships 38 features three title fights. The event will air live on AXS TV in a busy Friday night for MMA fans which also features a Bellator event on Spike TV. If I’m being completely honest, the MFC card actually looks more interesting, as two of the three title fights feature very intriguing prospects. The main event of the evening seems set up as a showcase fight for Anthony Birchak — who put on a sterling performance against Ryan Benoit at MFC 37 in one of the year’s most entertaining bouts — as he looks to capture the MFC Bantamweight title against Tito Jones. The other prospect to look out for is heavyweight Smealinho Rama, who has made short work of all six of his opponents, stopping each inside the first round. The 21 year-old seems poised to be a new face in the heavyweight division if he keeps performing, and improving, the way he’s shown thus far. Rama takes on Anthony Hamilton, who is on his own four-fight winning streak — all by first-round stoppage — and looks to spoil the rise of the Canadian prospect. Finally, in what looks to be the most competitive of the title fights, 10-0 submission artist Jason South takes on former TUF and Bellator veteran Sam Alvey for the middleweight title. This is a contrast of South’s grappling skills and Alvey’s brawling style. Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for MFC 38 at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MFC Bantamweight Title Anthony Birchak -385 Tito Jones +265 MFC Middleweight Title Sam Alvey -230 Jason South +170 MFC Heavyweight Title Smealinho Rama -505 Anthony Hamilton +335 Lightweight Fight Kurt Southern -140 Jonatas Novaes +100 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: This is a card designed to build fighters up, and I expect it to do just that. In terms of the title fights, Birchak and Rama should roll, while I can see a bit more in question in the middleweight title bout. In terms of confidence, I’d have to say Birchak is the safest bet, simply because Rama fights in the heavyweight division, and that always brings with it a bit more variance. Adding to that confidence in Birchak is the matchup. Tito Jones is not a finisher, which means that in order to win this fight, he’s likely to have to control a superior fighter for 25 minutes, which is an extraordinarily difficult task. The heavyweight title fight is unlikely to make it out of the first round, and it should be Rama getting his hand raised, but you just never know when it comes to the big boys. He is the far more skilled and athletic fighter, and should be safe to add in parlays, but crazier things have happened in this weight class. The middleweight title fight is rather intriguing. Sam Alvey’s brawling style against Jason South’s submission game. What these fights come down to is who can control the wrestling, and who can go deeper into the fight and remain fresh. I give Alvey the slight edge in the wrestling, and he has far more experience going deep in fights, so if South is unable to finish this one early, he’s likely in a lot of trouble. Still, a tough fight to call and not something I’m planning on betting unless I can get an underdog number on Alvey which looks unlikely. The last fight with a line on this card is a rematch of the MFC 36 bout between Jonatas Novaes and Kurt Southern. In that bout, Novaes won by third round armbar, but there was some controversy involved as he was accused of hooking Southern’s gloves multiple times in the bout, including when he secured the finish. Up until that point, Southern was winning the bout with wrestling and top position, and I expect the same to happen here. Southern’s sub defense hasn’t been his strength in the past, so that is worrisome, but it could also be helpful to his backers. I’m hoping the public will bet Novaes up as most are unaware of the circumstances of their first bout, so it may be wise to wait until just before fight time to pull the trigger here, although you do run the risk of sharper bettors taking advantage of the already low line on Southern.
