One of the fights booked for the UFC Fight Night 29 main card is a light heavyweight bout between veterans Thiago Silva and Matt Hamill. Silva is currently a -300 betting favorite (bet $300 to win $100) at Several Bookmakers while Hamill is a +220 underdog (bet $100 to win $220). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened Silva as a -285 favorite, meaning so far the public likes the Brazilian a little more in the fight, and I don’t blame them as I like him here too. Actually, I like Silva quite a bit here, and I see value on him at -300. Here’s why. Although he is not the best 205 pounder in the UFC, Silva is the definition of solid and can give anyone in the division a rough night. Even when he took on some of the best guys in the division like Rashad Evans and Alexander Gustafsson, Silva was able to hold his own against two of the best fighters in the division. Yes, he was KOed brutally by Lyoto Machida but that was at the height of Machida’s career and Silva hasn’t been knocked out since despite facing some of the heaviest hitters in the UFC light heavyweight division during that stretch. The problem with Silva isn’t his skill, it’s been his inability to pass drug tests as he’s tested positive for banned substances twice in the last three years. Not good. However, and this may sound bad, but even though he took PEDs he was still a winning ticket against Stanislav Nedkov and Brandon Vera, and for bettors, that’s the only thing that matters at the end of the day. Silva is taking on Hamill next week, and it’s “The Hammer’s” first fight in over a year since a boring decision win over Roger Hollett at UFC 152. Still, Hamill showed strong wrestling in that matchup and if he is able to replicate the same gameplan with the same success against Silva, he could steal a decision. But in Brazil we know that the refs will stand fights up early if there’s little or no action going on, so even if Hamill gets a takedown he will really have to work to keep the ground position. And against a good ground fighter like Silva, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Instead, I really think the majority of this fight is going to take place on the feet, where I give Silva a large advantage in the striking department. Although Hamill is solid and has shown a good chin in the past, he is 36 years old now and, after a long career in the sport, I don’t think he’s going to be able to eat Silva’s bombs like he once may have been able to. I believe that Silva can win this fight by either knockout or decision — or maybe even the rare submission via punches — but I don’t have a strong lean either way so I’m going to pass entirely on props in this fight and just put Silva in parlays at the moneyline of -300, which I think is a very fair price to pay.
