One of the four Facebook prelims scheduled for the UFC 165 card is a lightweight bout between UFC newcomer Jesse Ronson and Michel Prazeres. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers sees Ronson as a -165 favorite (bet $165 to win $100) while the comeback on the dog Prazeres is +145 (bet $100 to win $145). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened Ronson at -140, which means the public is on to Ronson here, and I agree as I really think he is the right side in this matchup. Although many people betting on this weekend’s card may be unfamiliar with Ronson, I have personally seen this man fight live twice and I can tell you right now he is one of the top prospects in Canada at 155 pounds and I know he has what it takes to do some serious damage in the UFC’s lightweight division. Nicknamed “The Body Snatcher” because of his brutal body shots, Ronson is a very talented striker and he has excellent takedown defence which allows him to keep his fights standing and in his wheelhouse. In his fights against Ryan Healy and Alex Ricci in the Score Fighting Series that I was live for, Ronson displayed ridiculous power and the only reason he didn’t get TKO wins in those fights is because both Healy and Ricci are tough as hell. But with six of his career 13 victories coming via T/KO, it’s clear this man can finish, and you can bet that’s what he’s going to try and do against Prazeres this weekend in front of his home province of Ontario. Prazeres, his opponent, fought Paulo Thiago very competitively in his Octagon debut at UFC on FX 7 as a welterweight and now he’ll be dropping down to his natural weight class of 155 pounds, where he was previously undefeated at 16-0. The Brazilian showed in the Thiago fight that he’s pretty well-rounded in all areas of the game but he seemed very tentative on the feet against Thiago and there’s no doubt in my mind that Ronson is way more dangerous on the feet than Thiago is at this point of his career. If Prazeres is going to pull off the upset here, he needs to get the takedowns on Ronson and go for the sub — Ronson has two career losses and one is a sub loss to a nobody (the other is a TKO loss to Mike Ricci) — but that’s going to be easier said than done against a strong young bull like Ronson. I honestly think that Ronson is going to be a player in the UFC’s lightweight division and I expect this Saturday at Air Canada Centre to be his coming out party. Look for Ronson to stuff Prazeres’ takedown attempts, keep the fight on the feet, and beat the Brazilian up badly en route to a brutal stoppage victory similar to Jordan Mein vs. Dan Miller. And at the small price of only -165, I think he’s one of the best bets on the entire UFC 165 card.
