The main event of the UFC 165 prelims on FOX Sports 1 is a three-round lightweight matchup between undefeated Myles “Fury” Jury and Canadian Mike “The Martian” Ricci. The opening betting line for the fight had Jury as a -350 favorite (bet $350 to win $100) with the comeback on Ricci +250 (bet $100 to win $250). Since then, the public has come in on Jury and he has been bet up to -420. Jury is 12-0 as a pro and the only hiccup so far in his career was a split decision loss to Al Iaquinta in the TUF 15 semi-finals. Originally a cast member on TUF 13 before having to pull out of the show with an injury, Jury showed that the hype is real on TUF and he’s proven it under the bright lights so far with a perfect 3-0 record in the UFC, including wins over Chris Saunders, Michael Johnson, and Ramsey Nijem. In his three fights in the Octagon, Jury has shown he is a complete mixed martial artist with good wrestling, solid submissions, and surprising power on the feet. And he’s only 24, which means he still has time to improve — and working with the likes of Ross Pearson and Michael Chandler at Alliance MMA, there’s no doubt he has the right training partners to help get him there. Ricci is 8-3 as a pro and he made it to the finals of TUF 16 before being smothered by Colton Smith at the finale. But the 26-year-old Canadian has since dropped down to his natural weight class of 155 pounds where he is much more suited to compete as his opponents no longer outweigh him by 20 pounds. Ricci is a solid striker with good power and he has some neat submission skills, and, like Jury, he trains at TriStar gym with the likes of UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre, Rory MacDonald and John Makdessi. But for whatever reason, Ricci just hasn’t been able to put it all together in the cage and when he’s stepped up in competition he’s lost for the most part, with his three career Ls coming to Pat Curran, Daron Cruickshank, and Smith. However, when he does put it all together he is a very dangerous fighter and he holds a recent win over current UFC welterweight Jordan Mein on the Canadian regional circuit. If Ricci fights like he did against Mein and this fight with Jury turns into a competitive striking match and it’s a toss-up to the fans and media who will win on the scorecards — think back to Bobby Voelker vs. Patrick Cote at UFC 158 — then the h0metown judges may rip Jury and award the contest to the hometown boy Ricci, just like they ripped off Dustin Pague when he fought Yves Jabouin at UFC 161. But if Jury is able to use all of his skills and make this a complete mixed martial arts match and not just a sparring session on the feet then the judges won’t be much of a concern at all because Jury will likely get the stoppage. If Ricci is tough enough to survive, I actually think you’ll see some 30-26 scorecards. So if Jury is available at -300 or less by fight day, I’d recommend him in a parlay.
