The co-main event of UFC 165 is a five-round fight to determine who gets to (cross your fingers) fight Dominick Cruz and unify the bantamweight belts in 2014 as UFC interim bantamweight champion Renan Barao puts his strap on the line against number one contender Eddie Wineland. Several Bookmakers currently lists Barao as a healthy -700 favorite (bet $700 to win $100), while Wineland is a big (+500) underdog. The line opened a couple hundred cents lower, which means the public is big on Barao so far, and I have to say I absolutely agree with them. I mean, honestly, how does Wineland win this fight? I have a lot of respect for the guy — I respect anyone who competes in this brutal sport — and he certainly has a puncher’s chance here, but, really, that’s about it. For as good as Wineland’s boxing is, Barao’s overall standup attack is more varied and I really don’t see Wineland being able to get it to the ground anyways, meaning he’s going to be eating Barao’s leg kicks all night. So unless Wineland’s gameplan is to push Barao against the fence and work there, I see this fight taking place mainly in the center of the Octagon and I heavily favor Barao if that is indeed the case. Unlike Wineland, who has only one really path to victory, Barao has multiple ways he can win this fight. He can knock Wineland out, he can take him to the ground and submit him, he can outstrike him to a decision, and he can maybe even wrestle him to a decision. It’s not a fluke that Barao is currently on a 31-fight undefeated streak — simply put, the guy is an absolute stud and he knows how to win fights. In my opinion, he will more than likely extend that streak to 32 this weekend. There are a number of props available for this fight for you to bet on, but personally I feel as though the money line is the right way to go here because I can see this fight ending in so many ways, although each time I envision the fight it’s with Barao getting his hand raised. If I had to make an official pick, I’d say that Wineland will be taken down and choked out with an RNC, but at the same time Wineland is one tough competitor and it’s possible he can survive all the way to a decision. Therefore, I think the safest play is to just put Barao in your parlays to beef out your payout, even at the high price of -700. There could be some action on Wineland on fight day that could bring Barao’s line down a bit, but since I personally cap him as a -1000 favorite in this fight, I think -700 is more than fair so even if the line stays the same I really feel good about the Brazilian this weekend and I definitely think he is one of the most likely winners on the entire card.
