After a weekend where the gaze of the combat sports world turned to Boxing for another Floyd Mayweather masterclass, the UFC will take centre stage with their annual trip to Toronto headlined again by light heavyweight champion Jon Jones. Jones has now fought in Toronto each of the last three years, as it is the closest major site to home for the upstate New York product. This time, he faces a challenger who — heading into the bout — most are considering slightly more able than either of his last two, who were both middleweights making the jump up to 205lbs. The UFC has not shied away from this angle either, as almost the entire promotion of the fight has been based around the fact that Gustafsson is similar in stature to Jones. Regardless, fight fans and bettors don’t see this as an issue as Jones is a -800 favorite (bet $800 to win $100) at Several Bookmakers, which is right in line with his last two defences. There is another title fight on this card, which is equally lopsided in terms of the odds, as Renan Barao puts his (interim) bantamweight title on the line against Eddie Wineland. Barao, on the strength of his 31-fight unbeaten streak is a -700 favorite, with Wineland a +500 underdog (bet $100 to win $500). Lines have also been out for some time on the other main card bouts, and they are much closer. Matt Mitrione is a slight -120 favorite over Brendan Schaub (+100), Costa Philippou (-190) has the edge over Francis Carmont (+165) on the books, and Khabib Nurmagomedov (-230) is favored to keep his unbeaten record in tact when he takes on Pat Healy (+190). Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the remaining lines for UFC 165 at Several Bookmakers. Check them out below: ——————– Light Heavyweight Title Jon Jones -675 Alexander Gustafsson +425 Interim Bantamweight Title Renan Barao -475 Eddie Wineland +325 Matt Mitrione -130 Brendan Schaub -110 Constantinos Philippou -175 Francis Carmont +135 Khabib Nurmagomedov -260 Pat Healy +180 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD Myles Jury -350 Mike Ricci +250 Ivan Menjivar -145 Wilson Reis +105 Stephen Thompson -280 Chris Clements +200 Dustin Kimura -140 Mitch Gagnon +100 John Makdessi -190 Renee Forte +150 Jesse Ronson -140 Michel Prazeres +100 Alex Caceres -120 Roland Delorme -120 Daniel Omielanczuk -290 Nandor Guelmino +210 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: It will be interesting to see how the seven Canadians on the undercard fare, as Canadians traditionally have one of the lower “home town advantages” in terms of winning percentages in the UFC. I’ll touch on this more in my long-term betting trends article for UFC 165. My early thoughts were that Mike Ricci and Chris Clements are in trouble, as their fights do not stylistic favor them, and nothing has changed my line of thinking there. On the other hand, Ivan Menjivar, John Makdessi and Jesse Ronson (making his UFC debut) as positioned quite well to win their bouts. The real intrigue comes in the form of the Mitch Gagnon/Dustin Kimura bout and the Roland Delorme/Alex Caceres bouts. Gagnon likely has the edge early in his bout against Kimura, but we’ve seen that the youngster doesn’t go away easily, and has the ability to finish opponents late, which has been the Canadian’s achilles’ heel in the past. As far as Delorme and Caceres, the bout should be incredibly fun and full of scrambles. Again, the Canadian’s cardio can be concerning, but I see him having enough of the top position in this one to edge the early rounds and hold on for a decision. The one fight I didn’t touch on was Daniel Omielanczuk and Nandor Guelmino, and if you saw the Soa Palelei/Nikita Krylov fight from UFC 164 you know why. There just aren’t that many good heavyweights around, and this will go no further to changing that reputation. A pass if there ever has been one.
