In the main event of UFC 280, the vacant lightweight title is up for grabs as Charles Oliveira takes on Islam Makhachev. The card takes place on Saturday, October 22 in Abu Dhabi, Dubai.
UFC 280 Opening Odds:
Charles Oliveira: +250
Islam Makhachev -300
Current UFC 280 Odds (as of Sept. 12):
Charles Oliveira +135
Islam Makhachev -155
Oliveira and Makhachev’s recent fights
Charles Oliveira (33-8) is coming off a first-round submission win over Justin Gaethje which was supposed to be him defending his lightweight title. However, he missed weight by 0.5lbs and was stripped of the belt. Prior to that, he submitted Dustin Poirier to defend his belt for the first time after winning the vacant belt with a KO win over Michael Chandler. The Brazilian is on a 11-fight winning streak and hasn’t lost since 2017 and during the run he has beaten the likes of Kevin Lee, Tony Ferguson, and Jim Miller among others.
Islam Makhachev (22-1) has yet to defeat anyone currently ranked in the top-10 at lightweight but it is due to canceled fights due to injuries. Last time out, he beat Bobby Green by first-round TKO after defeating Dan Hooker by first-round submission. In his first UFC main event, he submitted Thiago Moises in the fourth round. The Dagestani is 11-1 inside the Octagon with other notable wins over Drew Dober, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos among others.
Are the odds surprising?
The opening odds were very surprising as Islam Makhachev shouldn’t be a -300 favorite over Charles Oliveira and bettors immediately corrected that. Although Oliveira has been disrespected by the oddsmakers and the public in his last couple of fights as he has been the underdog against Poirier, Ferguson and Kevin Lee while only being a slight favorite over Chandler and Gaethje, getting +250 on him was way too high. The Brazilian has shown improved standup and arguably has the best jiu-jitsu in the lightweight division. Along with that, Makhachev has yet to beat a top-five opponent so there are questions about how he would do against the best in the division.
How might the odds change?
Already the odds have declared considerably and I do expect more money to come in on Oliveira. The Brazilian has become a bit of a fan-favorite and getting plus-money on him has been proven to be a profitable bet. I think Makhachev might close as a small favorite of around -125 or it will be a pick’em but money continues to come in on Oliveira and to me this is a pick’em fight which is how I expect the odds to be eventually.
