In the main event of UFC 279, a welterweight bout headlines the card as Khamzat Chimaev takes on Nate Diaz. The card takes place on Saturday, September 10 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
UFC 279 Opening Odds:
Khamzat Chimaev -1100
Nate Diaz +775
Current UFC 279 Odds (as of Aug. 12):
Khamzat Chimaev -1250
Nate Diaz +800
Chimaev and Diaz’s recent fights
Khamzat Chimaev (11-0) is coming off a decision win over Gilbert Burns in what was supposed to be the toughest test of his career. The Swede is currently 5-0 in the UFC with wins over John Phillips, Rhys McKee, Gerald Meerschaert, and Li Jingling and finished all four of them, including Meerschaert in one punch.
Nate Diaz (20-13) is on a two-fight losing skid and coming off a decision loss to Leon Edwards while in the fight before lost by doctor stoppage due to a cut to Jorge Masvidal for the BMF belt. His last win was a decision victory over Anthony Pettis at UFC 241 in his return to the Octagon after his back-to-back fights against Conor McGregor.
Are the odds surprising?
The opening odds were not a surprise as I figured Chimaev would be near a -1000 favorite as this is a terrible stylistic matchup for him. Diaz struggles when he faces wrestlers and fighters that are stronger than him which Chimaev is. Along with that, the Swede has always been a massive favorite in his UFC career as he has closed as a -600, -1250, -625, -600, and -625 which shows how much the oddsmakers have respected him and his game.
How might the odds change?
When Chimaev opened at -1100, it seemed to me that oddsmakers wanted no one to bet on this fight as at that price it isn’t even worth throwing Chimaev in his parlay. Yet, I do think you could see Chimaev end up closing around this range as people will take a small shot on Diaz at the price but I don’t expect the odds to change much from where it currently is.
