In the main event of UFC 272, a fascinating welterweight bout headlines the card as Colby Covington takes on Jorge Masvidal. The card goes down on Saturday, March 5 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
UFC 272 Opening Odds:
Colby Covington -190
Jorge Masvidal +160
UFC 272 Current Odds (as of Feb. 14):
Colby Covington -265
Jorge Masvidal +280
Covington and Masvidal’s recent fights
Colby Covington (16-3) is coming off a razor-close decision loss to Kamaru Usman back in November for the welterweight belt. Prior to that, he TKO’d Tyron Woodley to return to the win column after a TKO loss to Usman at UFC 245 for the welterweight strap. “Chaos” is the former interim welterweight champion and holds notable wins over Robbie Lawler, Rafael dos Anjos, Demian Maia, Max Griffin, and Bryan Barberena among others.
Jorge Masvidal (35-15) is coming off back-to-back losses to Kamaru Usman for the welterweight title and last time out at UFC 261 he suffered a KO loss. The first time he fought the champ was at UFC 251 in Abu Dhabi on eight days’ notice. Before the setbacks, “Gamebred” TKO’d Nate Diaz to win the BMF belt, had the five-second KO over Ben Askren and also KO’d Darren Till.
Are the odds surprising?
It was surprising to see the odds open so low as I personally had it in the -250 to -275 range for Covington. Although both men are 0-2 against Usman, Covington has had more success and has the style to beat Masvidal. The two are longtime friends and roommates turned bitter rivals but that hasn’t played much of a role in the betting window. Masvidal is also a fan-favourite so perhaps the oddsmakers thought people would bet on him if they opened him up too high.
How might the odds change?
As you can already see, a ton of sharp money has come in on Covington, to no surprise. “Chaos” has great wrestling and cardio while his pace and pressure is a horrible style matchup for Masvidal. I do think at +280 people will jump in on Masvidal as casual bettors are fans of him and will think he has the power to KO Covington, which certainly could happen. But, if the line gets down to below -250 money will come in on Covington. I expect the line to stay around the same if not go to -275 for Chaos.
