In the main event of UFC 271, Israel Adesanya is set to defend his middleweight title as he rematches Robert Whittaker. The card goes down on Saturday, February 12 in Houston, Texas.
UFC 271 Opening Odds:
Israel Adesanya: -260
Robert Whittaker +220
UFC 271 Current Odds (As of Jan. 4)
Israel Adesanya: -215
Robert Whittaker: +180
Adesanya and Whittaker’s recent fights
Israel Adesanya (21-1) returned to the win column last time out as he beat Marvin Vettori by decision to defend his middleweight title. In he fight before, he moved up to light heavyweight and dropped a decision to Jan Blachowicz for the light heavyweight title. He’s currently 10-1 inside the Octagon and has defended his belt three times with the other two coming by TKO over Paulo Costa and a decision over Yoel Romero. He won the belt back at UFC 243 with a second-round knockout win over Whittaker. He also won the interim belt with a decision victory over Kelvin Gastelum. Since the first fight fight with Whittaker, he’s 3-1.
Robert Whittaker (23-5) is on a three-fight winning streak and is coming off a decision win over Gastelum in April after defeating Jared Cannonier in October of 2020 and a decision win over Darren Till in July of 2020. The Till fight marked his first since he suffered the knockout loss to Adesanya to lose his belt. He also holds notable wins over Romero, Jacare Souza, Derek Brunson, Uriah Hall, and Brad Tavares.
Are the odds surprising?
I was surprised to see Adesanya open above -250 as in the first fight, he opened as the +160 underdog and closed at a -130 favorite. He also only opened as a -185 against Romero and -235 against Vettori so to see Whittaker be a bigger underdog than those two is surprising.
However, Adesanya is a big name as casual fans like him and back him at the betting window regardless of the price so sports books can’t open him too low or they will get slammed.
How might the odds change?
Already, money has come in on Whittaker which at +220 was a good bet as I don’t think we will see Whittaker be above +200 again. Although I do expect money to come in on Adesanya during fight week as casual bettors put him in their parlays, I do think sharp money will come in on Whittaker as the Australian has a path to victory with his wrestling.
When the two step into the Octagon, I do think Adesanya will b a sizeable favorite around -200 with the comeback around +170 to +175.
