On the main card of the stacked UFC 268, Justin Gaethje is set to fight for the first time in over a year as he battles Michael Chandler. The card goes down on Saturday, November 6 in Madison Square Garden, in New York City.
UFC 268 Opening Odds:
Justin Gaethje -140
Michael Chandler +120
UFC 268 Current Odds (Oct. 22):
Justin Gaethje -175
Michael Chandler +145
Gaethje and Chandler’s recent fights
Justin Gaethje (22-3) has not fought since UFC 254 in October, 2020 where he suffered a submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov for the lightweight belt. Prior to that, “The Highlight” was on a four-fight winning streak where he knocked out James Vick, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone in the first round and then TKO’d Tony Ferguson in the fifth round to win the interim lightweight title. Gaethje started his UFC tenure out 1-2 as he knocked out Michael Johnson but then was knocked out by Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier in back-to-back fights. He’s also the former WSOF lightweight champion.
Michael Chandler (22-6) is coming off a KO loss to Charles Oliveira for the lightweight title back in May. “Iron” made his UFC debut at UFC 257 against Dan Hooker where he won by first-round KO. Chandler actually served as the backup fighter for Nurmagomedov-Gaethje at UFC 254. He is the former Bellator lightweight champion with notable wins over Brent Primus, Benson Henderson, Patricky Pitbull, and Eddie Alvarez.
Are the odds surprising?
I’m not surprised to see Justin Gaethje open as the -140 favorite as he has proven more inside the Octagon. In Michael Chandler’s last fight, I think his stock went down as he was knocked out by Oliveira who to the casual audience still hasn’t gotten the respect he deserves and is only considered a grappler by many.
It also isn’t surprising to see the public backing Gaethje already as Chandler has been knocked out a few times in his career and in his last fight, got knocked out by Oliveira and Gaethje hits much harder.
How might the odds change?
I do think the public will continue to back Gaethje and he will be bet up to around the -200 mark, once that happens I expect sharp money to come in on Chandler who has legit one-punch KO power, so he can’t be totally overlooked. Ultimately, I think this line will close with Gaethje being in the -180 to -190 range with the comeback on Chandler at +150 to +160.
