In the main event of UFC 268 on November 6 at Madison Square Garden, Kamaru Usman is looking to defend his welterweight title for the fifth time as he rematches Colby Covington after they had a phenomenal fight in December of 2019.
UFC 268 Opening Odds:
Kamaru Usman -225
Colby Covington +190
UFC 268 Odds (As of Oct. 11)
Kamaru Usman -290
Colby Covington +230
Usman and Covington’s recent fights
Kamaru Usman (19-1) is coming off a highlight-reel KO win over Jorge Masvidal at UFC 261 in April to defend his belt just two months after TKO’ing Gilbert Burns in February. The welterweight champ only fought once in 2020 which was a decision victory over Masvidal and in his first title defense, he TKO’d Covington in the fifth round. Inside the Octagon, “The Nigerian Nightmare” is 14-0 and has also beaten the likes of Tyron Woodley, Rafael dos Anjos, Demian Maia, Sean Strickland, and Leon Edwards among others.
Cole Covington (16-2) hasn’t fought since September of 2019 as he beat Tyron Woodley by fifth-round TKO due to a rib injury, however, it was a dominant performance from Covington. Prior to that, he suffered the TKO loss to Usman in a back-and-forth scrap which was his first loss in the UFC. “Chaos” is the former interim welterweight champ after beating dos Anjos at UFC 225 but never fought Woodley for the undisputed and was out for over a year and dominated Robbie Lawler. He also holds notable wins over Maia, Max Griffin, and Bryan Barberena.
Are the odds surprising?
I am surprised Usman is nearing a -300 favorite as the first fight was super close with one judging having Covington up 3-1 entering the fifth and another having it 2-2. Both men had moments in that fight and both appeared to rock the other. At UFC 245, Usman was only a -200 favorite, which to me, is where this line should be around as I actually think the -225 opener was spot on.
How might the odds change?
As you’ve already seen, I do expect to keep betting Usman as many believe he is unbeatable and invincible and Covington is not well-liked so casual bettors may just bet against him. However, if you see the line cross -300, I do expect you will see sharp money come in on Covington as a +250 underdog as he shouldn’t be that big of an underdog. But, I do think this line will close around -300 for Usman.
