On the main card of UFC 266 on September 25, Nick Diaz makes his return to the Octagon as he takes on Robbie Lawler. The fight serves as a rematch of their scrap from 2004 at UFC 247 where Diaz scored a second-round knockout in his second UFC fight.
UFC 266 Opening Odds:
Nick Diaz +210
Robbie Lawler -250
UFC 266 Current Odds (August 16)
Nick Diaz +100
Robbie Lawler -120
Diaz and Lawler’s recent fights
Nick Diaz (26-9 and two No Contests) has not fought since UFC 183 in January of 2015 where he lost a decision to Anderson Silva in his middleweight debut, but the fight was overturned to a No Contest as both men tested positive, while Silva was for PEDs, Diaz’s was for marijuana. Prior to that, he lost back-to-back decisions to Carlos Condit and Georges St-Pierre for the interim title and then the undisputed title. He’s the former Strikeforce welterweight champion and holds notable wins over BJ Penn, Paul Daley, KJ Noons, Frank Shamrock, Gleison Tibau, and Robbie Lawler.
Robbie Lawler (28-15 and one No Contest) is on a four-fight losing streak and has not looked the same since he lost his belt as he is just 1-5 in his last six. Lawler hasn’t fought since August of 2020 where he dropped a decision to Neil Magny, and before that, lost to Colby Covington, Ben Askren, and Rafael dos Anjos. In his career, the former UFC welterweight campion holds notable wins over Carlos Condit, Rory MacDonald, Johny Hendricks, Matt Brown, and Frank Trigg.
Are the odds surprising?
The opening odds were very surprising as despite Diaz not fighting since 2015, he still is a big name and Lawler has not looked like himself. I personally thought it would be near a pick’em or a slight lean towards Lawler, where the odds currently are.
However, it’s no surprise that sharps hammered the Diaz line as a sizeable underdog and now have a good ticket in their pocket.
How might the odds change?
Even though Nick Diaz is only a +100 underdog I do think more money will come in on him. Diaz is a fan-favourite and he has a “cult” following of sorts where Diaz fans are super loyal and come fight week when they arrive in Vegas.
On the flip side, I do think sharps will come in on Lawler once more Diaz money comes in, but I think we will see this line be a pick’em come fight night.
