Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor will have their highly-anticipated trilogy fight in what will likely be the biggest UFC fight of 2021 in front of a sold-out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on July 10.
The winner of Poirier-McGregor 3 will likely earn the first crack at Charles Oliveira’s lightweight title later this year.
UFC 264 Opening Odds:
Dustin Poirier +120
Conor McGregor -140
Current UFC 264 Odds (as of June 29):
Dustin Poirier -110
Conor McGregor -110
Poirier and McGregor’s recent fights
Dustin Poirier (27-6) is coming off a second-round KO win over McGregor in the main event of UFC 257 in January. It is arguably the biggest win of his career, despite it not being for a belt due to the name value the Irishman has. Prior to that win, he earned a hard-fought decision over Dan Hooker to get back into the win column after losing by submission to Khabib Nurmagomedov for the lightweight title. He’s the former interim lightweight champion after beating Max Holloway by decision at UFC 236. He also holds notable wins over Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, Anthony Pettis, and Diego Ferreira among others.
Conor McGregor (22-5) made his return to the Octagon in over a year and lost by KO to Poirier. Prior to that, he had a 40-second TKO win over Donald Cerrone in his return to the sport after he suffered a submission loss to Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 in 2018 for the belt. Since fighting and losing to Floyd Mayweather in boxing he’s just 1-2 in his last three and many have wondered about his focus. However, in his career he still has notable wins over Jose Aldo, Eddie Alvarez, Chad Mendes, Nate Diaz, Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway. He’s also the former UFC featherweight and lightweight champ.
Are the odds surprising?
Despite Poirier clearly winning the rematch, I wasn’t surprised to see Dustin Poirier open as the underdog for the trilogy.
McGregor is such a big name and gets so much bets by causal bettors sports books can’t open him as this massive underdog or they will get smoked. I did expect it to be a pure pick’em which is where it is right now with a slight lean to Poirier which does make sense.
How will the odds change?
Early on, we have seen bettors back Poirier as they don’t think McGregor can make the changes. I do think we will see more money come in on “The Diamond” yet as fight week arrives that is when a ton of McGregor money should come in.
Throughout the Irishman’s career, once his fans from Ireland arrive and start betting, as well as casual fans on Saturday night, the line begins to swing in his favor. I do think this will end up being a near pick’em but I wouldn’t be surprised if it closes as McGregor as a -130 favourite and Poirier around a +100 underdog.
