The middleweight title is on the line in the main event of UFC 263 as Israel Adesanya rematches Marvin Vettori on June 12 in Glendale, Arizona.
After Adesanya lost to Jan Blachowicz for the light heavyweight title, he wanted a quick turnaround and many expected him to fight Robert Whittaker. However, the former champ wasn’t ready to return in June, so Vettori got the rematch he has been after for years.
UFC 263 Opening Odds:
Israel Adesanya -235
Marvin Vettori +200
Current UFC 263 Odds (as of May 28):
Israel Adesanya -260
Marvin Vettori +220
Adesanya and Vettori’s recent fights
Israel Adesanya (20-1), as mentioned, is coming off a decision loss to Jan Blachowicz in his bid to become a champ-champ. Prior to that loss, he was coming off a dominant TKO win over Paulo Costa to defend his belt for the second time after a win over Yoel Romero before that. “The Last Stylebender” won the belt with a TKO over Robert Whittaker after being the interim champ after beating Kelvin Gastelum. He also holds wins over Vettori, Brad Tavares, Derek Brunson, and Anderson Silva.
Marvin Vettori (17-3-1), is 5-0 since he lost by split decision to Adesanya in 2018, in the same arena where their rematch will take place. Since the loss, he beat Cezar Ferreira, Andrew Sanchez, Jack Hermansson, and Kevin Holland all by decision and submitted Karl Roberson.
Are The Odds Surprising?
The odds should’t be a surprise as Adesanya is usually over a two-to-one favorite. He opened as a -250 favorite against Blachowicz, closed as a -200 favorite against Costa, was over -300 against Romero. He has only been under -200 against Tavares and Whittaker.
Vettori, meanwhile, is someone the betting market hasn’t gotten behind until lately. He also closed as a +190 underdog against Adesanya in the first fight. However, although it was a split decision loss, many, including myself thought it was a clear path to victory for the now middleweight champ.
How Might The Odds Change?
As you’ve already seen, money has come in on Adesanya and I expect that to be the case until fight night.
The Last Stylebender is a start who many tune into watch and will put money on him just because of his name. If you look at how Adesanya lost to Blachowicz, the light heavyweight champ bused his size to grapple the Nigerian. Vettori likely won’t be stronger, if at all, than Adesanya to do that.
In the first fight, Vettori was two for six on takedowns and since then Adesanya has been better at stuffing takedowns. On the feet, the champ is a much better striker, which will lead to many betting him and parlaying him. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this line be near -300 come fight night.
