Leon Edwards gets his high-profile fight he wanted as in the co-main event of UFC 262 in Houston, Texas on May 15, the Englishman is set to welcome Nate Diaz back in the Octagon.
When the fight was made, fans were excited as Diaz is a fan favorite. It is also the first ever, five-round non-title fight co-main event. Due to Diaz being involved, the fight will get a ton of action.
UFC 262 Opening Odds:
Leon Edwards -275
Nate Diaz +220
Edwards and Diaz’s recent fights
Leon Edwards (18-3 and one No Contest) is coming off a No Contest due to an accidental eye poke against Belal Muhammad in March. Before that, he had eight wins in a row over the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Gunnar Nelson, Donald Cerrone, and Vicente Luque. His last loss was also to Kamaru Usman back in 2015.
Nate Diaz (20-12) is returning to the Octagon after losing by TKO (doctor stoppage) to Jorge Masvidal for the BMF title back at UFC 244 in November of 2019. He is 1-2 in his last three with his lone win coming over Anthony Pettis and a loss to Conor McGregor. In his last 10, he’s 5-5 in his last 10 but always brings the fight.
Are the odds surprising?
I’m not surprised by Edwards being nearly a three-to-one favorite, but I am surprised at the current odds, due to the respect Nate Diaz normally gets at the sportsbooks. Against Masvidal and the rematch against McGregor, it was practically a pick’em, while Diaz was a favorite over Pettis.
Although it was opened at -275, that line immediately got steamed so other books opened it around -400, which surprised me.
Leon Edwards, meanwhile, is someone that doesn’t usually get the respect from the sportsbooks. Even though he was a big favorite against Belal Muahmmad, Diaz is a bigger underdog than Muhammad. Edwards, meanwhile, was in a pick’em fight against Rafael dos Anjos and only a slight favorite over Gunnar Nelson and opened as an underdog to Donald Cerrone.
How might the odds change?
I think the odds will change quite a bit due to the casual bettor backing Nate Diaz.
When you get a big name who casual MMA fans know like Conor McGregor, a ton of late money usually comes in on them. When fight night rolls around, I’d expect people to take a stab at Diaz at +300 and above because they know him from beating McGregor. I do think the line will come down to around -350 for Edwards.
