Jan Blachowicz is set to defend his light heavyweight title for the first time against Israel Adesanya in the main event of UFC 259 on March 6 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
When the fight was made, many figured if Adesanya won he would then fight Jon Jones, but all signs point to “Bones” having a permanent stay at heavyweight. However, the fight is still a very intriguing one and a fight that will likely get bet on a ton.
UFC 259 Opening Odds:
Jan Blachowicz: +210
Israel Adesanya -270
Current UFC 259 Opening Odds:
Blachowicz: +215
Adesanya -255
Blachowicz and Adesanya’s recent fights
Jan Blachowicz (27-8) pulled off another upset back at UFC 253 as he TKO’d Dominick Reyes in the second round to win the vacant light heavyweight title. In his last 10 fights, he is 8-2. He also holds notable wins over Luke Rockhold, Jared Cannonier, Nikita Krylov, Corey Anderson, and Jacare Souza.
Israel Adesanya (20-0), meanwhile, is also coming off a second-round TKO win over Paulo Costa at UFC 253 to defend his middleweight title. He is a perfect 10-0 in his last 10 including being 4-0 in title fights in the UFC. He holds wins over Yoel Romero, Marvin Vettori, Derek Brunson, and Kelvin Gastelum.
Are the odds surprising?
No.
Jan Blachowicz is someone many look over and is the betting underdog. In his last 10 fights, he has been the betting underdog in eight of his last 10 fights. As the underdog, he has won seven of them and has been as high as +205.
Israel Adesanya, on the other hand, has been someone the oddsmakers and the public love betting even as a favorite. He has been the betting favorite in all of his fights, except the Robert Whittaker bout, which was a pick’em. He has also been above -200 five times in the UFC. Even with “The Last Stylebender” moving up in weight, it appears the public is still backing him.
How might the odds change?
In my opinion, I think the odds are too high in Adesanya’s favor. As everyone knows, history repeats itself, and when Blachowicz is a sizeable underdog, he usually pulls it off.
Although I think Adesanya has the skillset to win this fight as he is the better striker and will be able to keep it standing, there are some question marks. First off, how the middleweight champ deals with the size and power of Blachowicz will be interesting, and the Pole only needs to connect with one solid shot to win the fight.
However, I do expect as we get closer to the fight, Adesanya will only become a bigger favorite. Blachowicz is not a well-known name while The Last Stylebender has a big following and always gets a ton of public money during fight week which I expect here. I wouldn’t be surprised if the middleweight champ closes at or near -300.
