UFC Fight Night 28 Date: September 4, 2013 Arena: Mineirinho Arena City: Belo Horizonte, Brazil Featherweight bout: Edimilson “Kevin” Souza (+160) vs Felipe Arantes (-185) Fight Breakdown: Starting things off for the evening is a featherweight match-up that pins two Brazilians together, when promotional newcomer Edimilson “Kevin” Souza takes on four-time Octagon veteran Felipe Arantes. Souza is currently the underdog in this bout at +160 ($100 to win $160), while Arantes is the favorite at -185 ($185 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. EDIMILSON “KEVIN” SOUZA (13-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is taking this bout on three weeks notice, replacing an injured Sam Sicilia. Kevin will step foot in the Octagon for the first time in his career and doing so with an impressive seven fight win streak, that sees all seven victories coming inside the distance by way of knockout. Kevin is an explosive fighter and is relentless with his active attack. He has good takedowns, and once on the ground likes to find his way into a ground and pound position, where he uses his fists to make opponents wilt and quit. He has a good submission game, but much prefers to use his hands. Kevin has never gone to the judges scorecards in his sixteen fight career and he is taking this fight on short notice, so his cardio is questionable. I imagine he will be at a cardio disadvantage going into this bout, so he would need to do damage within the first two rounds. I’m not sure as to what the back-story behind his nickname “Kevin” is, but my best guess is that he’s a big Home Alone fan. FELIPE ARANTES (15-5-1 MMA, 2-1-1 UFC) will be making both his fifth appearance in the UFC and his fifth appearance on a UFC Brazil card. It will also be his third time being the first fight of the night, so he knows very well what to expect. There will not be Octagon jitters or an adrenaline dump with Arantes, that much is safe to say. Arantes is a good Tae Kwon Do and Muay Thai fighter with very good takedown defense. He has a solid base, as he has been training in judo since childhood. He holds a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, so he is also well-versed on the ground. He owns four career wins by submission and eight by knockout. Only seven of his sixteen pro fights have gone the distance and he’s had his hand raised in four of them. Arantes generally has good cardio and I think he will have at least a slight cardio advantage heading into this bout, though he will be at a height and reach disadvantage. Fight Prediction: I think Kevin will be too much for Arantes in the early going of the fight, but Arantes will likely survive, as he has a good chin and big heart. I feel Kevin will get the better of Arantes for at least two rounds. Arantes will likely make a comeback in the third, as Kevin runs out of gas, but it won’t be enough… I’m going to say — Gabe’s Pick: Edimilson “Kevin” Souza by Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-29) Gabe’s Recommended 9*UNIT Play: Edimilson “Kevin” Souza +160 for 3.5u and keep an eye out for Souza +3.5 for 5.5u, I am guessing the line will be set at or around +105.
