Flyweight bout: Ali Bagautinov (-280) vs Marcos Vinicius (+240) Fight Breakdown: Kicking things off for the UFC Fight Night 28 main card is a battle between two warriors looking to make their mark in the UFC’s flyweight division, when the Russian Ali Bagautinov takes on TUF: Brazil season one’s Marcos Vinicius. Bagautinov is currently the favorite at -280 ($280 to win $100), while Vinicius is the underdog at +240 ($100 to win $240) at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. ALI BAGAUTINOV (10-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC) will be making his promotional debut riding an eight fight win streak that includes six stoppages. Bagautinov is a highly skilled wrestler, both in Greco-Roman and freestyle wrestling. He is certainly very talented in the grappling department. On top of his wrestling credentials, he holds Championships in Sambo and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Needless to say, his ground game is very legitimate. He can take the fight there usually whenever he pleases, as he has good takedowns. He is a real threat when he gets on top of his opponents, but is also dangerous when he is on the bottom. Ali Bagautinov’s striking is good, also. He possesses good boxing skills and is capable of keeping fights on the feet and beating opponents there. Bagautinov has great cardio and a lot of heart. He will be entering the Octagon looking to make a statement against Marcos Vinicius. MARCOS VINICIUS (20-4 MMA, 1-1 UFC) makes his third trip to the Octagon following a December 2012 loss to Johnny Bedford. He was set to face-off against Yuri Alcantara back in May, but pulled out of the bout due to an injury. Since the injury, he has opted to drop down a weight class and give it a go as a flyweight. Vinicius initially appeared as a featherweight on the first season of TUF: Brazil and will now be fighting 20 pounds lighter than he was fighting at on the show, but only 10 pounds lighter than his previous bout against Bedford. Vinicius is a talented Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner. He can catch a sub from either top or bottom position, though he’s not as effective from the bottom against talented grapplers, so I don’t think he will be a threat from his back if he ends up there against Bagautinov. Vinicius’ striking is average, at best. He owns seven knockouts, but really isn’t much of a threat, especially in this bout, because he’s going up against a guy with a solid chin. Vinicius often shows up well-conditioned, but sometimes he will gas in the third. He has had a full training camp for this bout and is a fighter who fights with a lot of heart, so I expect him to be prepared for a three round war. Fight Prediction: I think this fight is going to be ALL ALI. Bagautinov will get the takedowns whenever he wants and dominate Vinicius. He will pound Vinicius out or possibly submit him. If he doesn’t end it, he will beat him up for fifteen minutes en route to a U-D-W. Gabe’s Pick: Ali Bagautinov by TKO (punches, 3:34 round 3) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ali Bagautinov -280 for a BIG PLAY — I would recommend a ‘max bet’ here but Vinicius will have the size advantage and is fighting in his backyard, so it could go to the judges and we could get screwed; not very likely, but that is the only reason I’m not maxing this. Playing it big, but considering the juice and the aforementioned scenario, I’m not gonna get too crazy.I feel very comfortable he’ll pull away with a win, though. He’s just that much of a better fighter, all around.
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