One of the fights I’m looking to at UFC Fight Night 27 is the middleweight bout between the surging Brad Tavares and TUF 17 veteran Robert “Bubba” McDaniel. The current odds at Several Bookmakers have Tavares listed as a -400 betting favorite (bet $400 to win $100), while McDaniel is a +325 underdogs (bet $325 to win $100). The line opened at -350 for Tavares and +250 for McDaniel, meaning there has been a little bit of public support so far behind Tavares. To be honest I’m a little bit surprised by this. Not that I’m surprised the public is betting Tavares, but because I’m surprised they haven’t come in heavier on him since I believe Tavares at -400 offers tremendous value as I personally cap the Hawaiian at -1000 for this fight. Honestly, I just don’t see how McDaniel wins this fight based on both fighters’ skill-sets. Sure, McDaniels is a great BJJ player, but Tavares is one of the strongest middleweights in the UFC and has some of the best takedown defense in the division. And on the feet, it’s night and day as Tavares has a solid chin and improving striking while McDaniel’s chin is questionable and his striking is below average. So if McDaniel can’t get him down, how is he going to win this fight outside of an injury TKO to Tavares or a bad judges’ decision? The answer is he won’t, and that’s why I feel very comfortable laying the juice on Tavares in this spot despite the fact it’s a general rule of mine not to lay juice over -200. Tavares has one career loss and that was to Aaron Simpson at UFC 132. But that was just a bad matchup for Tavares as he was only 23 at the time and his striking wasn’t better than Simpson’s at that point and his wrestling wasn’t good enough either. That’s why he lost his goose egg. But it’s been two years since then and Tavares has improved to the point where I consider him a legit dark horse at 185 pounds, and it’s why I think he will run over McDaniel and finish him with a brutal TKO. At -400 I believe that Tavares makes a very good parlay key and if you play him with Carlos Condit (-240) the price drops down to only -130 for the pair, and I truly believe that’s a terrific bet to make next week.
