Yesterday, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas released the full betting lines for this weekend’s UFC 164 card at Several Bookmakers, and after having a day to digest them, I’m ready to write down some of my thoughts about a few of the new lines that I believe present good opportunities for betting. In the first fight of the night, one of my favorite fighters in the entire UFC, Jared Hamman, returns after a year-long injury layoff to take on Magnus Cedenblad, who himself is coming off a year-plus-long layoff. I expect this to be in contention for “Fight of the Night” when it’s all said and done and to be honest I’m surprised it’s been planted on Facebook and not put on TV. Hamman is a very talented fighter but his problem is his dismal striking defense, as he’s routinely beat up in all of his fights. Fortunately for him, though, Cedenblad doesn’t really offer that much on the feet and I see this fight taking place standing up, where I believe Hamman can be the more effective striker. With Hamman available at a Pick ’em price of -125, I’m quite liking him for a bet here as I believe he can either win a decision or even get a stoppage. The next fight that intrigues me for a bet is in the heavyweight fight between Nikita Krylov and Soa Palelei. Krylov is making his UFC debut here after a great run over in Europe and at 21 he’s the youngest fighter in the entire UFC. Palelei, on the other hand, beat up Sean McCorkle and Bob Sapp in order to earn his spot back in the big show. This fight isn’t going the distance, that’s for sure, but after looking at things deeper, I’m liking Krylov quite a bit here for a bet at the low-juiced price of only -140. Honestly, he should be -200 in this fight so I see good value in him, although I am usually gun shy about betting on heavyweight MMA because of the four ounce gloves. But since I see so much value here, I almost have to play Krylov. The next fight I think is a good spot to make a bet is in the welterweight bout between Germany’s Pascal Krauss and South Korea’s Hyun Gyu Lim. This is essentially a striker vs. striker battle and in my opinion, Krauss is the superior striker so at -185, I’m liking Krauss big here for a play as I expect him to win a clear-cut decision or possibly get the stoppage. And the last line I’m interested in is a bantamweight bout between Chico Camus and Kyung Ho Kang. At first I was liking Kang, but after considering Camus’ lay-and-pray style as well as the fact he is fighting in his hometown of Milwaukee, I really do think there’s good value in him as a +160 dog and I’ll be making a small play on him. I’ll keep watching how the lines move before fight day but right now the four fighters I mentioned are definitely some of my targets for bets.
